According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japanese demand for crude steel in the July-September quarter of fiscal year 2026 is expected to total 20.18 million mt, increasing by 1.3 percent year on year but decreasing by 2.1 percent compared to the previous quarter’s estimated result.
METI forecasts Japan’s overall steel demand, including exports, at 18.05 million mt for the given period, down 3.1 percent year on year but rising by 1.1 percent quarter on quarter.
Of the total, ordinary steel demand is expected to amount to 14.23 million mt, decreasing by three percent year on year but increasing by 0.9 percent quarter on quarter, while special steel demand is forecast at 3.82 million mt, down 3.5 percent year on year and up two percent from the previous quarter.
Construction conditions remain challenging
Japan’s domestic steel demand is expected to total 12 million mt in the July-September quarter, declining by 1.3 percent year on year but increasing by 0.8 percent quarter on quarter.
In the construction sector, labor shortages and elevated material costs will continue to weigh on demand. Although public works budgets remain high, civil engineering demand is expected to increase only slightly year on year due to higher material and labor costs, while demand from the building construction segment is forecast to decline.
Meanwhile, demand from the automotive sector is expected to remain broadly stable, while the industrial machinery segment is projected to continue its gradual recovery and record year-on-year growth.
Exports expected to fall by 6.4 percent
Japan’s steel exports in the July-September quarter are forecast to total 6.05 million mt, falling by 6.4 percent year on year but increasing by 1.8 percent compared to the previous quarter.
METI stated that global steel demand remains sluggish amid economic uncertainty, while increasing protectionism and trade measures targeting Japanese steel continue to weigh on exports. The ministry also highlighted the need to monitor the impact of China’s worsening steel supply-demand balance on neighboring markets and developments in the Middle East.
