Global iron ore exports by the major supplying countries edged up slightly in January-September 2025 despite the downtrend in world steel production. Global iron ore exports increased by just 0.25 percent year on year to 1.2 million mt during the period, as per the latest BigMint data.
Global crude steel production in January-September 2025 declined marginally by 1.6 percent year on year to 1.4 million mt. However, iron ore exports did not decline due to relatively stable sourcing by China which has a share of roughly 75 percent in global seaborne trade in the commodity.
Among the front-ranking exporters, Australia saw a marginal decline in volumes, while Indian shipments fell sharply year on year. However, Brazil and South Africa witnessed growth in exports.
China's imports remain stable: China's iron ore imports totalled 917.7 million mt during January-September, a marginal decrease of 0.06 percent, while its crude steel production during the period fell by 2.9 percent year on year. The stable performance highlights how strong global supply and resilient mill operations have balanced out domestic demand weakness and policy-driven output controls.
Major producers in Australia and Brazil maintained elevated export levels, capitalising on prices holding above $100/mt since July. Seasonal demand expectations boosted restocking by Chinese mills ahead of the traditional autumn construction period, aided by better margins and a modest rebound in infrastructure orders. US-China trade tensions and tighter export controls prompted early stockpiling as a precaution. Plus, Chinese steel exports, too, remained high - increasing, for example, by nearly 9.2 percent year on year in the given period.
Australia's exports drop slightly: Australian iron ore export volumes were recorded at around 645 million mt during the review period, a negligible 0.1 percent drop year on year. Major miners reported a drop in shipments, especially in Q3. BHP's iron ore sales declined by 8 percent quarter on quarter to 70.6 million mt in Q3CY'25 against 76.7 million in Q2 even as production dropped 9percent during the quarter. Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) delivered shipments of 49.7 million mt in Q3, down 10 percent against 55.2 million mt in Q2.
However, Rio Tinto's production remained stable while sales edged up 6 percent in Q3. Most of the Australian iron ore majors focused on completing rail and other infrastructure works. Grade depletion in the Pilbara remains a pressing concern.
Exports by Brazil up 5percent year on year: Brazilian seaborne iron ore supply rebounded in the June quarter after weather disruptions earlier in the year. Vale recorded total iron ore production of 94.4 million mt in Q3CY'25, up sharply by 12.9 percent from 83.6 million mt in Q2. The sharp increase in production, driven by the ramp-up of new assets and improved operational reliability, lifted output to its highest level since 2018. Sales, too, increased by 11 percent in Q3. Vale accounts for over 80percent of Brazilian exports. Vale has kept its iron ore production guidance unchanged at 325-335 million mt for CY'25.
SA exports strong despite drop in Anglo's production: South Africa recorded a 7 percent growth in exports of iron ore during the period on stable demand, mainly from China. However, Anglo American's output fell by 10 percent quarter on quarter in Q3. The quarterly dip was primarily due to lower production from Minas-Rio. Kumba's iron ore production remained largely stable.
Indian iron ore exports fall sharply: India recorded an over 40 percent decline in iron ore exports in 9MCY'25 due to weak Chinese demand, flat domestic iron ore production and tight availability situation in the domestic market. Recurrent talk of an impending export duty on iron ore kept market participants on the margins.
Iran raises exports by nearly 60 percent: Iran's total iron ore exports in 9MCY'25 was over 18 million mt. The major mining companies are ramping up their ore-concentrate capacity. According to Iran's Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organisation (IMIDRO), there was a 2 percent rise in iron ore concentrate production over certain periods in 2025.
Key mines such as Chadormalu, Gol-e-Gohar, and Sangan are pivotal to Iran's iron ore production, with nameplate capacities of 16 million mt, 7 million mt and 2.6 million mt, respectively. Iran's smaller and mid-level miners are being forced to explore export options, according to some accounts, due to their domestic financial distress and interminable delay in receiving payments.
US exports to China, Canada drop: Iron ore exports by the US have fallen primarily due to decreased exports to China and Canada owing to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and trade disputes causing sharp swings in other commodities. However, the US' iron ore exports and production are not necessarily decreasing overall in 2025, as the market has seen some stabilisation.
Outlook
Three factors will shape global iron ore trade in the coming time - a) depletion in mainstream grades and surging demand for high-grade ore amid steel decarbonisation; b) increased supplies of comparatively high-grade ore from Africa, the Middle East and Brazil. Full operations of Simandou expected by 2027 with 160 mnt of high grade fines output likely, and c) higher global supplies affecting prices.
In the short term, global iron ore exports are expected to remain largely flat year on year in CY'25 despite the possibility of further cuts in Chinese steel production in November and December. A price above $100/mt for mainstream ore is always an inducement for suppliers to keep exports at a high level. However, going forward, the iron ore price outlook is one of irreversible decline.
Source: BigMint