During the panel discussion "The 'new normal' of the global economy as Europe loses track" at the EUROMETAL Southern Europe Meeting 2026 held lately in Milan, Emilio Rossi (EconPartners & Oxford Economics), Fernando Espada (Tata Steel), and Armando Cafiero (Confindustria Ceramica) outlined a clear picture of European industry: it is looking some firm ground in a context of geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty.
Fernando Espada opened the debate by noting a change of pace in Brussels: the European Commission seems to have grasped the urgency of the necessity of concrete industrial policies. "The message is slowly reaching all of European society," Espada explained, citing the European Parliament's recent response on safeguard measures, which extended to the entire "steel ecosystem", recognizing the value of the whole value chain. In this scenario, Emilio Rossi recalled that the competitiveness of the steel industry strictly depends on integration with advanced services and high-performance technological sectors.
The debate continued with a comparison between the worlds of steel and ceramics. Armando Cafiero highlighted how the Italian ceramics sector, which exports 80 percent of its turnover, shares the same complexities as the steel industry: infrastructural deficiencies, energy costs and unfair competition. Regarding the latter point, Cafiero recalled that the "Chinese invasion" was blocked in 2013 thanks to antidumping duties, but now the problem arises with India, where antidumping actions have not had the same effects. "The free trade agreement [with India], which we fully understand and support as we export 80 percent, paid no attention to sectors like ours," he commented.
Trade protection measures - duties, CBAM and ETS
While Europe prepares for a new safeguard regime (which could cut importable volumes by 50 percent), a climate of uncertainty predominates in the United States. As already reported by SteelOrbis, the Supreme Court has struck down the reciprocal duties imposed by President Trump, declaring them illegal. When asked about the possibility of a change of course, Rossi commented that the current situation makes it almost impossible to make a prediction and highlighted how duties are used more as tools of domestic policy and global dominance than as real economic correctives.
Espada, on the other hand, offered a more pragmatic interpretation. "Personally, I believe the steel market is perfect from a theoretical point of view: it found a new balance in November when the implementation of CBAM from January 1, 2026, was announced, and it will do so again with the new safeguard," he stated. However, he observed that upward price movements are dictated by administrative and bureaucratic factors, not by a real push in demand.
Regarding the ETS, Cafiero recalled that it is a 20-year-old system modified based on ideological principles, which takes €130 million a year from companies to give them to financial speculation. European regulatory pressure is leading the continent's major producers to recalibrate the timing of investments. "A bullet kills because of its speed, not its size," Espada commented, referring to the rapidity with which the European Commission requires the sector to adapt to new legislation. No major European producer has canceled decarbonization programs, but their implementation must be dictated by the speed of the market, he added.
Perspectives on demand
In closing the discussion, the focus shifted to market perspectives. While the resilience of the automotive sector will be decisive for steel, demand for ceramics remains solid at European and global levels despite the construction crisis in France and Germany. The real question, raised by Cafiero, concerned the source of the material that will satisfy this demand - whether it will be ours, or Chinese or Indian. The answer, according to the president of Confindustria Ceramica, lies in the ability to continue investing, and diverting resources from financial speculation to protect European manufacturing.