During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Alexander Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group, started off by underlining that in July this year the IMF forecasts a 3.0 percent global GDP growth compared to 3.3 percent growth in 2024, indicating a loss of potential steel demand amounting to 25 million mt. He added that emerging Asian countries are expected to see a growth of more than five percent, pointing out that 88 percent of the growth is coming from outside of China, showing that a lot of developing countries are doing well economically.
Looking at construction, Mr. Gordienko said that in the EU the construction sector is recovering this year, but only in infrastructure, with housing starts blocked by bureaucracy, while in the US as well, housing starts are down, by 19 percent since 2019, while infrastructure spending increased by 14 percent over the same period. In China, no hope of a recovery is on the horizon, with steel demand from housing decreasing by 45 percent compared to 2019.
Based on worldsteel’s August 2025 figures, the CELSA official pointed out that India is emerging as the country which has increased its steel production the most, with an increase of more than 10 percent year on year in the January-August period. India is producing as much as Japan and Russia combined, he noted. On the other hand, in the same period MENA and Southeast Asian countries also posted increases in steel production.
Gordienko also talked about Chinese steel exports as “the elephant in the room”, stating that as of July 2025 Chinese steel exports increased by 10 percent year on year, while China’s rebar and wire rod exports rose by 50 percent and its semi-finished steel exports surged by 310 percent, both year on year. He underlined that 2025 will be a record year for China’s steel exports, certainly exceeding 2015-16 levels.
Stagnant demand and mounting trade tensions
Comparing 2020 and 2025, long steel consumption decreased by nine percent and “as more and more capacity comes online, mills will have to cut costs so volumes will not be going up soon.” Gordienko said. Looking at capacity utilization rates, he indicated that, with 165 million mt of EAF capacity expected to come online, the capacity utilization rate will drop to 73.1 percent in 2027. He also explained that every percentage point decline means 18 million mt of capacity being idled, which is equal to Spain’s annual production. Compared to 2019, rebar consumption in 2025 increased by one percent, while wire rod consumption decreased by three percent and steel section consumption rose by four percent. Regarding rebar consumption, he pointed out that India will overtake the EU in 2026.
Commenting on prices, the CELSA official said that prices do not change much, noting that, in comparison with September 2024, the market remains incredibly stable and, looking at the spread between scrap and rebar, he said that it remains below $200/mt, signaling weak demand.
Turning at the end of his presentation to the challenges facing the market, Gordienko said that the same old headaches such as trade wars, weak demand, Chinese exports and CBAM remain but they are becoming larger. With more than 400 trade cases so far in 2025, the tariff situation is changing almost every week, steel exports keep flooding the market, with Chinese mills continuing to operate despite the weak demand and searching for buyers in overseas markets. In 2025, China will register a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Regarding CBAM, Gordienko said he expects the new tax will be around €60-90/mt and that CBAM will be finally adopted in other parts of the world as well.
AI data centers emerge as a surprising new steel consumer
Finally, touching upon a new, interesting issue, Gordienko pointed out that in the US the digital economy is emerging as a major steel consumer, with more steel set to be used to house AI than humans in the US. AI data centers will require 1.5 million mt of steel compared to 1.3 million mt required for residential buildings. Moreover, data center demand is cyclical, it does not depend on interest rates as the construction industry does. As it is built on national soil, it gives additional protection to local mills. “For every picture generated by AI means 0.2 grams of steel demand. It is less than half a paperclip, but billions of prompts turn into vessel loads of steel,” he noted.