The December outlook for US scrap pricing remains sideways in weekly market discussions with most scrap buyers this week, though increasing chatter among suppliers indicates a $10-20/gt premium is increasingly more likely, especially if mills emerge as larger scrap buyers next month when most annual maintenance operations will have been completed, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Jan-Feb scrap is seen by some up $20-40/gt as demand expectations for 2026 supply requirements begins to emerge.
“Scrap is likely to rise in the December through February period,” remarked one US Gulf Coast long steel market insider speaking on his scrap outlook. “This should provide firm cost support for rebar pricing. We expect [long steel] to hold firm into winter and likely trend higher with scrap. Tight supply availability is the number one driver,” he added, “and lead times [for rebar] are stretching out toward January-February.”
Another Upper Midwest scrap insider remained less convinced pricing would move higher for December. “Mills saying sideways, while suppliers are calling it $10-20/gt higher sounds about right,” he commented, “The problem is, that they will [mess around] for a week and a half and [November] will be over, so, I just don’t know at this point.”
One US East Coast scrap insider was more convinced a higher December scrap outlook remains possible. “Scrap is up even today,” he said. “We’re expecting higher numbers for scrap, though, we will have to see what this week brings. If [rebar] stays strong, we are expecting a $10-20/gt increase next month.”
Following months of stable rebar pricing, Nucor and close competitor Commercial Metals Company (CMC) announced a much anticipated $30/nt ($33/mt) rebar price increase effective Nov. 7. Spot pricing has continued to inch up since the mill moved to raise posted pricing. Nucor also has been increasing its posted Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coils, most recently up $15/nt to $910/nt ($1,003/mt) or $45.50/cwt. In just two weeks, Nucor’s CSP has risen $45/nt, or $50/mt., for a gain of 2.25 percent.
During September, October and November, most US mills perform scheduled annual maintenance, reducing their need for scrap while mills remain shuttered. During September, scrap prices settled sideways to August values, while October saw a $10-20/gt dip in pricing across all scrap grades and regions. Recent November settles showed scrap mostly sideways once again, though Midwest busheling moved $18/gt lower, as workable trading ranges narrowed, amid reports of plentiful supply in local markets, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis. Other grades finished solid sideways across all grades and regions.
While higher scrap prices are seeming a better possibility each week leading up to the start of December buy-cycle negotiations, based on a developing consensus for a sideways to up December settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap could finish next month at or above $385-395/gt ($391-401/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. Midwest shredded scrap, which is still called flat to potentially $10-20/gt higher, is likely to finish for December at or above its November close at $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), though a solid market call remains inconclusive as buyers and sellers still remain far divided. Ohio Valley HMS grades which finished sideways for November, are likely to settle flat to up from $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled flat this month, could settle sideways to up from its November close at $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
December prime busheling grade material is expected to settle flat to potentially higher near $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following its November sideways settlement, while shredded grades are seen sideways to potentially higher than the November settles near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt). P&S and HMS grades could finish flat to up from November settles near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
