During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, independent commodity consultant, highlighted trade tensions, sectoral growth prospects and the energy transition as defining factors for the global steel industry’s future. Noting that growth in the construction industry and in population promise long-term growth for steel demand, Dr. Büchner said that high tariffs and energy costs, as well as geopolitical tensions, remain challenges for the steel industry.
Global economic outlook: IMF raises growth forecasts for 2025
In its forecast updated at the end of July 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects slightly higher growth in the global economy (+0.2 percent) for 2025 than in its April 2025 outlook, predicting three percent growth for this year and 3.1 percent for 2026. The main reason for the slightly improved outlook is primarily the slight reduction in US trade tariffs on its most important supplier countries. Dr. Büchner noted that Asia-Pacific continues to offer strong growth potential, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, while Africa and the Middle East face uneven prospects due to geopolitical conflicts. South Africa, Canada, Brazil and especially Mexico are suffering particularly from the high US tariffs, while Turkey is affected especially by high inflation and weak consumer demand.
Automotive industry under pressure from US tariffs
Dr. Büchner noted that light vehicle production is expected to fall slightly to 89.2 million units in 2025. The US' constant attacks on the global trade order through ever-new tariff threats are making planning increasingly difficult for all exporters, while there are significant differences in customs duties on imports of passenger cars, which are often influenced by the goodwill or political views of the US president.
Construction industry growth to drive long-term steel demand
According to the consulting firm NMSC, the global construction market volume is forecast to grow from $11.4 trillion in 2024 to $16.1 trillion by 2030. Population growth and infrastructure investment, particularly in renewable energy, will drive this expansion. The world’s population is set to reach 8.57 billion by 2030 and nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, driving long-term steel demand through urbanization and infrastructure needs. Noting that the European and German construction industries are currently struggling as a result of sharp increases in construction costs and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, Büchner said however, that construction volume growth in Europe will also take a turn for the better in 2025, before picking up speed again significantly in the following years.
Other industrial drivers
Regarding other industrial drivers of the steel industry, he forecast that the mechanical engineering, aircraft and defense industries will drive additional steel demand. Global mechanical engineering sales could reach €4.1 trillion by 2030, supported by digitalization and artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Boeing forecasts the global civil aircraft fleet will double by 2042, further underpinning demand for steel.
