During the panel session of the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting held in Athens on April 27-29, Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.
Commenting on another hot topic, China’s exports, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries. Mr. Cebecioğlu stressed that, since more than 50 percent of Chinese production is by government-owned mills, China can afford to give lower prices, and as a result they will continue exporting and exerting pressure on prices.
Answering a question on whether bottom price levels are around the corner for raw materials and semi-finished and finished steel products, the producers committee chairman said that they are close, explaining, that to compete with China, everybody has to cut their prices if they are targeting the same markets. However, in the case of Turkey, although Turkish sellers cannot go as low as China, they have certain advantages such as shipment times. Commenting on the conditions needed for a recovery in prices, Mr. Cebecioğlu said, “Major changes are needed, but I don’t see them coming.”
The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, Turkey will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.
Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export. Turning to another potential market, Syria, he said that, as the situation in Syria is normalizing, the mills located in southern Turkey in particular have more opportunities to export to Syria. “We have already seen some signs of it. 200,000 mt has been exported to Syria and some 750,000 mt of exports are expected in the second half of this year. If the normalization continues in Syria this number might increase up to 2 million mt, and the estimated potential in the region bodes well for Turkish mills in the south,” he concluded.
