During the macroeconomic panel at the “EUROMETAL Southern Europe Meeting 2026” - held yesterday, February 26, in Milan - Emilio Rossi (EconPartners & Oxford Economics) outlined a global backdrop still heavily shaped by the post-Covid policy cycle and now moving towards normalization. According to Rossi, the shift away from “extra-expansionary” monetary and fiscal measures back to more “orthodox” policies is bringing structural constraints back to the forefront in advanced economies, including the EU.
Rossi noted that, years after the public health emergency, the effects of those policies are still visible: very low interest rates, prolonged fiscal support and a demand boost temporarily altered fundamentals, but the return to normal policy settings is re-exposing long-term limits. He pointed to drivers typically associated with “long-term stagnation” such as demography, weak productivity growth and excess savings, now compounded by newer pressures including protectionism, climate change, the acceleration of technology, defence spending, a slowing China and rising global debt.
In Rossi’s view, global GDP growth remains close to pre-Covid levels in the near term (around 3%), but forecasts indicate a gradual slowdown over the next decade, declining towards 2.2-2.5 percent. This, he stressed, implies a less supportive environment for demand growth across industrial sectors, steel included.
While describing the baseline outlook as “not benign”, Rossi also highlighted potential upside drivers that could support more optimistic scenarios. The key enabling factor, in his view, is human capital quality: innovation - not limited to AI - can translate into higher productivity only if the workforce has the skills required both to develop and to adopt new technologies. From this angle, Rossi pointed to the need to strengthen digital expertise and connectivity, alongside more investment in research and stronger links between universities and businesses.
As Europe’s main growth opportunities, Rossi referred to the broader digital ecosystem (AI, data centres, cybersecurity, big data, satellite technologies, cloud and IoT), as well as energy and defence, underlining that these areas require a solid infrastructure base. In particular, he stressed the need for heavy investment in stable power generation and strengthened grids, noting that the rise in data-centre electricity consumption is becoming increasingly material, with the US and China expected to drive most of the growth through 2030.
Rossi also addressed the US dollar’s global role. He argued that narratives predicting an imminent loss of the dollar’s dominance should be toned down, as the currency’s position remains supported by structural fundamentals. “The US dollar will remain the global currency of reference for at least the next decade,” he said, pointing to its role in global trade, the free movement of capital and constraints that make a China-led alternative unlikely in the near term.