According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2012-2013/Q4 2012 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), in the second quarter of 2012 the European Union (EU) automotive output declined by over three percent, with output in France, Spain and Italy particularly remaining weak.
In the first nine months of the current year, passenger car sales in the European Union dropped 7.6 percent year on year. The year-on-year decline in new car registrations accelerated in July and August. Weakening consumer confidence also started to affect markets such as Germany and the UK which had previously helped to offset falling sales in other countries. The UK was the only large market still registering a moderate growth in car sales over the January-September period.
According to EURFOER, continued robust demand for EU-made cars from abroad, most notably the US, Japan, China, India and Russia, supported primarily the producers in the upscale segment in Germany and the UK. Export demand has provided less support for other EU producers.
Regarding the outlook for 2013, demand from abroad will remain supportive of car output, but not for producers in southern Europe focusing on small cars. Moreover, exports might weaken in the months before economic growth in emerging countries strengthens again.
For 2012, EUROFER foresees that the total automotive output in the EU will decrease by around three percent, while forecasts for 2013 indicate a continued decline in the first half, followed by a minor improvement beginning from the third quarter as a result of planned capacity expansion in central Europe.