Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to total A$43 billion in 2023-24, before falling back to A$30 billion by 2027-28, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.
Global demand and metallurgical coal prices have firmed up in recent months, supported by a pickup in global steelmaking, while Australian metallurgical coal supply continues to face disruptions due to weather conditions. Reduced supply disruptions are expected to moderate price pressures in the short term. However, further flooding would likely hold prices up for longer. The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to fall from an average $377/mt in 2022 to $299/mt in 2023 with the expected improvement and normalization of supply conditions in Australia.
Long-term factors for metallurgical coal output remain largely positive. Higher production in New South Wales and Queensland is expected to push Australia’s exports up from 163 million mt in 2021-22 to 172 million mt by 2027-28.