According to the estimate of the Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), Australia's refined nickel production in the financial year 2012-13 is forecast to total 131,000 mt, up seven percent compared to FY 2011-12. BREE noted that, as well as the increase in Australian production, a 13,000 mt increase (up nine percent) in Canada's production is expected to be the most significant addition to world refined nickel production in 2012.
The BREE report indicated that in FY 2012-13 nickel mine production in Australia is forecast to decline six percent year on yearto 222,000 mt as a result of production being scaled back at higher-cost operations in response to lower nickel prices.
According to BREE, international nickel prices are forecast to average around US$17,400/mt for the whole of 2012, indicating an approximate 25 percent year-on-year decrease. Additional supply from new greenfield projects combined with moderating consumption will lead to an estimated 25 percent year-on-year increase in stocks to 217,000 mt. The average nickel price in 2013 is to remain unchanged at around US$17,300/mt.
In the fiscal year 2011-12, export volumes of nickel from Australia increased by 14 percent year on year to total 240,000 mt, in line with higher mine and refined production. Despite higher volumes, export values of nickel declined by two percent year on year to $4 billion. Export volumes in 2012-13 are forecast to remain relatively unchanged at around 240,000 mt. In FY 2012-13, export earnings are forecast to decrease by 17 percent year on year to $3.4 billion due to an anticipated decline in the Australian dollar-based nickel price.