According to Assofermet in its usual monthly market note, the Italian ferrous scrap market recorded a strong start in February, followed by a phase of stabilization in the latter part of the month. In the first weeks of the month, scrap prices increased by an average of about €15/mt, confirming the upward trend already observed in January and pushing domestic scrap sales to their highest levels, allowing steel mills to cover their raw material requirements.
Towards the end of the month, however, the market began to cool down. Limited production programs, the stalemate in the Turkish market and the further worsening of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East contributed to weakening sentiment among operators, raising concerns about potential price decreases which, for the moment, have not materialized.
The outlook for March remains difficult to interpret. The persistent weakness in finished steel sales combined with the shortage of high-quality scrap makes short-term forecasts particularly uncertain. In this context, market participants will closely monitor the evolution of finished steel demand and production levels, especially in light of the possible increase in energy costs linked to the current war. As a result, March currently appears likely to be a relatively weak month for scrap purchases.
On the international front, the scrap market showed overall price stability during February. In Turkey, negotiations between suppliers - seeking further small increases - and buyers - aiming to reduce the peak price levels reached earlier - ultimately ended without significant changes. European markets recorded some increases, while import prices largely remained in line with the levels seen at the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, Asian markets displayed fluctuating demand, partly due to seasonal holidays, resulting in overall stable price levels.
In the stainless steel scrap segment, February saw prices increase compared to the previous month, supported by rising nickel quotations on the London Metal Exchange and slightly stronger demand from steel producers. Despite this, demand remains at medium levels and the availability of material continues to be limited. Market sentiment for March is currently positive, though still cautious due to uncertainty linked to the evolving geopolitical situation.
As for pig iron, the European market did not record significant changes during February. The entry into force of the CBAM regulation and the difficulties in interpreting the mechanisms used to calculate the related costs - which vary depending on the origin of the material - have slowed down new negotiations, despite some buying interest, particularly for Brazilian pig iron, which appears to be subject to lower CBAM costs compared to other origins. At the same time, concerns are growing regarding the lack of alternative supply sources to Russia and Ukraine, the latter being penalized by particularly high CBAM costs, while Brazilian producers have started to request price increases in early March.
In the hematite pig iron segment, some contracts were concluded in February for deliveries scheduled for March and, in some cases, April. In many cases, these agreements reflect foundries’ intention to fix prices in order to better manage the uncertainty linked to the new CBAM framework while awaiting clearer technical rules and a more precise definition of actual costs. Future planning therefore appears largely driven by regulatory developments rather than by real market demand, while order books remain weak and expectations for a recovery in production are still lacking. In addition, logistical difficulties across Europe continue to create delays, reducing the availability of transport capacity and complicating shipment planning.
Finally, the ferroalloys market showed an overall stable trend, with price levels generally supported despite some slight downward corrections, particularly for ferrosilicon. Demand remained stable, while the fact that safeguard quotas for the quarter have not been fully exhausted has eased pressure on prices. However, availability remains limited and uncertainty persists regarding price levels for future transactions.