According to the estimate of the Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), Australia's nickel production in the financial year 2011-12 is forecast to total 228,000 mt, up 17 percent compared to FY 2010-11, mainly driven by the redevelopment and restart of First Quantum Minerals' Ravensthorpe mine in late 2011 with an annual capacity of 39,000 mt.
The BREE report indicated that in FY 2012-13 mine production is forecast to decline marginally to 203,000 mt as a result of production being scaled-back at higher-cost operations in response to lower nickel prices.
According to BREE, nickel prices are forecast to average around US$17,200 a tonne for the whole of 2012, indicating a 25 percent year-on-year decrease. Contributing to this decline in price, a 28 percent year-on-year increase in stocks is expected to 220,000 tonnes. The average nickel price in 2013 is forecast to increase to around US$18,250 due to higher growth in world consumption relative to refined production.
In the fiscal year 2011-12 export volumes of nickel from Australia increased by 14 percent year-on-year to total 240,000 tonnes, in line with higher mine and refined production. Despite higher volumes, export values of nickel declined by two percent, to $4 billion. Export volumes in 2012-13 are forecast to remain relatively unchanged at around 240,000 tonnes. In 2012-13 export earnings are forecast to decrease by 14 percent to $3.5 billion due to an estimated decline in the Australian dollar nickel price.