Australia forecasts gradual decline in iron ore prices

In 2014, Australia's exports of metallurgical coal are expected to increase by an estimated 2.4 percent to 174 million metric tons, according to a report by the Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE). Over the period from 2015 to 2019, increased production from various mines is forecast to support a 2.2 percent increase in metallurgical coal exports to 194 million metric tons.
 
In 2014, Australia's exports of iron ore are estimated to increase by 19 percent year on year to 687 million metric tons, down from the earlier estimate of 709 million metric tons. The increase has been supported by expansions at a number of projects owned by Australia's larger operators, including Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP Billiton. Meanwhile, in the 2015-19 period Australia's iron ore exports are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent to reach 851 million metric tons.
 
On the other hand, in 2014 Brazil's iron ore exports are estimated to increase by nine percent to total 361 million metric tons and over the 2015-19 period the country's iron ore exports are forecast to reach 486 million metric tons, increasing at an annual rate of six percent. The growth in exports is expected to be sourced primarily from expansions and new projects over the medium term, mainly from Vale's 90 million metric ton annual capacity project.
 
In addition, the iron ore spot price is expected to average at $110/mt FOB Australia in 2014 before dropping to around $103/mt in 2015, according to BREE's report. Over the 2015-19 period, the iron ore spot price is expected to decline both in Australia and Brazil, while the FOB Australia price is projected to be around $87/mt (due to current exchange rate of US dollar/Australian dollar).