Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources has announced that prices for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) are projected to remain relatively unchanged from current levels of around US$190/mt in 2026 before rising slightly.
The CFR China based coking coal price continued to rise through the December quarter, broaching US$200/mt in early December. The CFR China based price has been pulling Australian premium hard coking coal prices higher since July this year. In addition, Chinese coal mine safety inspections have been tightening supply and Indian demand has been strong after the monsoon season. Demand and supply are also expected to remain roughly in balance, with stronger Indian imports being offset by additional seaborne supply.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 forecast | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
| PHCC average price (US$/mt) | 242 | 187 | 190 | 196 |
Export volumes revised amid mine adjustments
Australia’s coking coal export volumes remained unchanged at 37 million mt in the September quarter. Increasing volumes from new projects were offset by the impact of lower production at some existing mines due to sequencing and maintenance. Export volume expectations have been revised downwards from the previous forecasts due to mine adjustments, while the outlook for global coking coal trade has not changed.
Additionally, the department has also added that coking coal export earnings are forecast to drop in the fiscal year 2025-26.
| Metric | 2024-25 | 2025-26 forecast | 2026-27 forecast |
| Export earnings | A$39.31 billion | A$35.94 billion | A$36.54 billion |
| Export volume | 147 million mt | 152 million mt | 160 million mt |
| Production | 151 million mt | 157 million mt | 165 million mt |