Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to decline from A$61 billion in 2023-24 to A$42 billion by 2025-26, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Australian metallurgical coal production volumes are expected to rise over the outlook period, but growth in export earnings could be muted by moderate global demand and reduced demand from China. Weather events such as La Niña present downside risks to the volumes. Prices are expected to decline on balance, but not to levels which would threaten the viability of Australian mines. The surge in exploration spending in 2023 that resulted from high prices could support Australian exports, though likely not until after the outlook period.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to fall from an estimated US$264/mt in 2024 to US$208/mt by 2026, though this outlook remains subject to significant upside risks.
Also, metallurgical coal exports from Australia are expected to rise from an estimated 155 million mt in 2023-24 to 172 million mt in 2024-25. A potential recurrence of the La Niña cycle presents a risk to supply.