Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to total A$56 billion in 2023-24, before falling back to A$35 billion by 2028-29, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Australian metallurgical coal production and exports have been constrained in recent years by bad weather and logistical problems. But demand factors also played a role, including relatively soft steel production among some regional importers, and sustained low exports to China even following the removal of trade restrictions.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to average at US$277/mt in 2024, down from an average of US$294/mt in 2023. Prices are also expected to experience volatility in the latter half of the year due to a possible new cycle of La Niña and associated disruptions.
Higher production in New South Wales and Queensland is expected to push Australia’s exports up from 156 million mt in 2022-23 to 175 million mt in 2028-29.