According to the latest monthly market report issued by Assofermet, the association representing Italian companies active in the trading, distribution and processing of steel, the Italian steel market is currently dealing with a persistent weakness in downstream demand and upcoming trade policy implementation that could significantly alter price trends during the summer months.
Carbon flat steel service centers face low order books, but look forward to summer recovery
In the carbon flat steel segment, the downstream market continues to show structural weakness. Rare exceptions are represented by the shipbuilding sector, defense, energy (with specific reference to renewables), and a few industrial niches. In recent weeks, European steel mills have registered a slight decline in their price lists. This reduction was promptly passed on and amplified by service centers in an attempt to collect orders and replenish still insufficient order books.
According to Assofermet, however, this bearish trend appears inconsistent with the upcoming European regulatory framework. The imminent entry into force of the new EU safeguard measures on July 1 - characterized by a significant tightening of import quotas and a doubling of out-of-quota duties - combined with CBAM constraints and existing antidumping measures, will drastically reduce procurement options from non-EU countries.
While these restrictions do not directly impact consumption, they will strengthen the bargaining power of EU steel producers. For this reason, it is reasonable to expect that during the summer months, dwindling inventories and the need for new procurement will foster a trend reversal, pushing prices back to significantly higher levels.
Stainless steel sales volumes collapse in May
For service centers specializing in stainless steel, the scenario is quite the opposite: May highlighted a noticeable slowdown in real demand, with volumes falling by 15-20 percent compared to previous months.
As the extraordinary factors that had artificially supported prices during the first four months of the year faded, the structural weaknesses of the sector emerged. The profitability of distribution and processing companies is currently under severe pressure, squeezed by difficult-to-manage corporate costs, stagnant demand and strong competitive pressure. At present, the association does not foresee concrete signs of a recovery for the coming months, noting, "The market therefore remains characterized by high uncertainty, limited visibility on future orders, and general caution across the entire supply chain."
Stockists see first positive signal since beginning of year
On the other hand, stockists registered the first increase in sales (both in terms of value and volumes) in May 2026 compared to the same month in 2025. This represents the first favorable result since the beginning of the year, although it must be interpreted with caution as it is partly affected by a base effect compared to a particularly complex May 2025. On the international level, the provisional trade agreement reached between the European Union and the United States on May 20, 2026 (which imposes a 15 percent cap on duties for most European goods) reduced short-term uncertainty, even though the issue of the 50 US tariff on steel and aluminum remains unresolved.
By product, Assofermet reports a positive context for longs, flats and hollow sections, mainly driven by a recovery in construction activities and orders from the energy and industrial sectors. In sharp contrast, the stainless steel segment remains in deep trouble. Stainless steel tubes, longs and flats registered significant declines in both volumes and values, affected by a structural weakness that shows no signs of reversal.
Tinplate prices on the rise amid stronger demand
In the tinplate segment, demand is supported by the food sector ahead of the seasonal peak in canning. The progressive rebalancing of the market and destocking along the supply chain are pushing prices upward. This trend is further supported by a contraction in supply, caused by delivery delays from some European steel mills and increasing logistical difficulties regarding imported materials. Expectations for the coming weeks therefore remain oriented toward moderate positivity.
Outlook
In conclusion, the moderate recovery observed in May opens a window of opportunity for the supply chain, but Assofermet warns that it is too early to talk about a structural shift in the market. Final demand remains fragmented and discontinuous, forcing structural steel fabricators, processors and distributors to keep inventories at a minimum and manage procurement with extreme caution. Stockists' margins will also remain under pressure, squeezed between high purchasing costs and unstable consumption.
In the short term, the stability of the sector will depend entirely on political and commercial factors. Market participants are focusing their attention on the actual impact of the new EU safeguard measures on domestic prices from July 1, as well as on the evolution of negotiations between Brussels and Washington for a possible revision of the 50 percent US customs duties on steel and aluminum by the end of the year.