In recent weeks, the Italian steel market has shown an unexpected revival, driven by the tightening of trade and economic protectionist measures. Buying interest has returned significantly, with renewed dynamism both from end-users and from service centers specializing in carbon flat products, according to the market report dated November 6 from Assofermet, the association representing Italian companies involves in the trade, distribution and processing of steel, scrap and non-ferrous metals.
The upturn was mainly triggered by concerns over rising duties and the introduction of costs linked to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as well as by fears of stricter import quotas on raw materials. Many operators have therefore brought forward their purchases for the coming months in an effort to hedge against the price increases already announced by European mills. This behavior contributed to a temporary improvement in shipments during October, although early November has been marked by a slowdown in demand and a renewed sense of caution.
Overall, the situation remains complex. While rising prices are supporting producers’ margins, they also risk undermining the competitiveness of the European manufacturing industry - especially if trade barriers are not extended to finished or steel-intensive products. Without coordinated action at the EU level, Assofermet warns, there is a real risk of structural damage to the continent’s industrial base.
Meanwhile, European mills, backed by the existing customs barriers, are maintaining the announced price increases for deliveries scheduled in 2026, despite persistently weak demand. October closed with volumes below expectations and price levels insufficient to ensure satisfactory profitability, while domestic competition remains intense. However, the outlook for the coming months could mark a turning point, supported by the expected reduction in import volumes and by early purchasing activity driven by regulatory uncertainty.
In the stainless steel flat segment, the situation remains uneven: October recorded a modest recovery in long products, while difficulties persist for flats and tubulars. The construction sector is showing early signs of improvement, sustained by stronger demand for reinforcing bar and welded mesh, with prices gradually consolidating.
For ready-stock distributors, interest in European-origin material continues to grow, with domestic production now perceived as more competitive and stable than imports. Availability remains ample, yet some buyers are already reporting requests for slight price increases for 2026 - in line with the overall upward trend and within a still-weak but steady demand environment. As regards imports, pressure persists to ship volumes within the first half of next year, ahead of the enforcement of new, more restrictive safeguard measures.
In the tinplate segment, Assofermet highlights a steady increase in interest for EU-origin production, which is currently benefiting from greater stability and a competitive edge over imported material. Initial requests for slight price hikes in 2026 have already emerged, with availability expected to remain adequate thanks to the slowdown in domestic demand. At the same time, imports continue to push for deliveries within the first semester, in an effort to anticipate the entry into force of the upcoming European protection measures.
Overall, November appears likely to be a transitional phase for the steel sector: the combination of protectionist policies, environmental costs, and macroeconomic instability is reshaping purchasing strategies along the entire supply chain. Ahead of the industry fair in Maastricht scheduled for November 18–20, market participants see the coming weeks as a crucial period for discussion and assessment - to determine whether the recent rebound marks the beginning of a genuine trend reversal or merely a brief pause in an otherwise uncertain year for the European steel industry.