In the July-August period, the Italian steel market recorded a partial recovery in purchase prices, which rekindled operators’ interest, albeit timidly. However, according to the latest monthly report from Assofermet Acciai, updated as of September 11, the sector faced strong difficulties in passing on the increase in coil costs to end customers, amid persistently weak demand and a widespread climate of uncertainty.
The September outlook shows substantial continuity with previous months, further aggravated by growing concerns related to the CBAM. Imports done during 2026 will be subject to the purchase of certificates as of February 2027. However, the European Commission has not yet disclosed the calculation basis needed to estimate the effective costs.
Additional uncertainty comes from US tariffs on steel and aluminium, which risk diverting volumes from the Far East to Europe, exacerbating the domestic oversupply. In this context, ahead of the new regulation that will replace the current safeguard measure in June 2026, Assofermet has already submitted several key points to the European Commission for consideration in the drafting phase.
July ended with reduced volumes and prices still at their lowest levels, while the first week of September showed no signs of recovery: demand remains below expectations and purchasing activity is limited, also due to high stock levels and very short production lead times.
For stainless flat products, July showed relative stability, with limited single-digit percentage movements, while in August some products, particularly cold-drawn tubes, attempted a modest upward push sufficient to support revenues. The construction sector remains more fragile, with rebar, welded mesh and related products continuing to show signs of weakness.
In the distribution segment, July recorded a trend similar to that of the previous year: stable prices allowed the market’s underlying direction to be assessed without sudden fluctuations, while August saw attempts at upward movement in some categories. September opened with a cautiously improving scenario, with moderately higher volumes and slight price increases in some segments, although the fragility of downstream demand remains evident.
According to Assofermet, the coming weeks will be decisive in shaping the trend for the final part of the year. The evolution of demand in key end-use sectors such as construction and automotive, together with inventory management, will be crucial in determining whether the market can consolidate the first signs of recovery or whether downward pressure from oversupply and international uncertainties will prevail.