Neslihan Torlak Gönençer, chair of the board of directors of Turkey’s Coaster Shipowners and Operators Association (KOSDER), spoke to SteelOrbis giving her review of 2025 and expectations for 2026.
Assessment of European-Mediterranean-Black Sea Region coaster market in 2025
As we leave 2025 behind, I would like to state that both the global shipping industry and the coaster shipping operating on the Europe-Mediterranean-Black Sea route have gone through a challenging yet equally transformative period. We have collectively experienced a year dominated by geopolitical risks, high market uncertainties, and a noticeably increased impact of regulations on the sector.
Geopolitical and economic environment: A year of continued uncertainty
Unfortunately, the most significant factor shaping 2025 was the ongoing conflicts surrounding our region. The uncertain course of the Russia-Ukraine War and its direct impact on freight and insurance items; the deepening tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, as well as the continuing threats and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, have directly affected both freight rates and transport security. These developments have changed the direction of trade and cargo flows; while at times bringing short-term volatility to the coaster market, they have generally reduced predictability.
On the macroeconomic side, the most comprehensive cycle of interest rate cuts by G10 countries since 2009 has partially improved expectations for global trade, but uncertainty over whether interest rates will rise again in 2026 requires careful management of investment plans.
Fleet structure and supply-demand balance: Pressure to renew is increasing
Looking at fleet movements between 2021 and 2025, we see a scenario where only one ton is scrapped* for every 11 tons of new orders. Although 11.5 million DWT will be scrapped in 2025, this figure is 54 percent below the 10-year average, which is noteworthy.
This situation is a serious structural warning, especially for the European-Mediterranean-Black Sea coastal fleet:
- Tonnage is rapidly aging, currently averaging around 25 years.
- The scrapping rate is insufficient.
- As the supply side strengthens, it becomes more difficult for freight rates to recover permanently.
Globally, China's leadership in shipbuilding order books with a 65 percent share continued in 2025, while South Korea and Japan rebounded in high value-added tonnage. While orders are concentrated in the container and LNG segments, the need for renewal in coaster tonnage continues, and new construction demand has not reached the expected level.
Freight rates and trade flows: Seasonal opportunities, persistent pressures
In 2025, coaster freight rates generally followed a volatile course. The main factors affecting regional trade can be summarized as follows:
- Restrictions imposed by the Turkish Grain Board on wheat imports led to a significant contraction in Marmara-Black Sea-focused shipments.
- The global slowdown in the steel market limited shipping appetite on the Mediterranean route.
- Route changes triggered by the Red Sea crisis created short-term upturns in some cargoes.
- Opportunities arising in the spot market provided advantages for shipowners operating flexibly.
In short, 2025 presented a market structure characterized by occasional opportunities but generally dominated by uncertainty and cost pressures.
Regulations and the 2026 outlook: Towards a mandatory transformation
The fact that the EU ETS will be 100 percent implemented as of 2026 indicates that costs will increase significantly, especially for coaster tonnage with low fuel efficiency. In parallel, this proves that global fleets will rapidly transform towards energy efficiency in 2026.
These developments have two key implications for coaster operators:
-The competitiveness of older tonnage will decline,
-The importance of modern and efficient vessels will increase.
Conclusion: A period of resilience, adaptation and strategic renewal
2025 was a year that tested both the resilience and adaptability of our industry.
Nevertheless, thanks to the historical dynamism of regional trade, our geographical advantages and the agile business models of industry players, coaster shipping continues to maintain its importance for regional economies.
2026 and beyond will be a period of necessary transformation for our sector.
Under the shadow of stricter carbon regulations, accelerating technological innovations and geopolitical risks, the future of coastal shipping will be based on investing in efficient tonnage, positioning correctly and strengthening risk management.
I wish the new year to bring peace, stability and prosperity to our industry, to all our shipowners and maritime workers. We hope that 2026 will be a more predictable, healthier period in which maritime trade regains momentum.
*Brs Shipbrokers market report.