The US domestic scrap market has been extremely quiet ahead of the Labor Day holiday, but deals made early are pointing to a soft sideways trend for September. About a week and a half to two weeks ago, a few mills in the Midwest secured their scrap for September early at prices that reflected no change from prices in early August. While deals done early don't necessarily always reflect the direction of the general scrap market, in this case, industry insiders are predicting that the early sales may have set the tone for September. Earlier in the month, scrap dealer sources were anticipating prices to increase in September (but not as substantially as the $30-$80/lt, depending on grade and region, jump in August).
SteelOrbis sources explained that at the beginning of August, the majority of both buyers and sellers expected another increase in September. As a result, many mills bought heavily in August to avoid having to pay another premium in September, therefore moderating scrap demand levels. Further, although ex-US export scrap prices to Taiwan and Turkey were increasing in late July and early to mid-August, export prices off the US East Coast to Turkey have declined over the last couple weeks, offering less support for a US domestic price increase in September. While a few scrap sources have indicated they believe prime scrap grades could even see a small decrease in September, the general scrap trend in the Midwest and East Coast is largely pointing sideways to slightly up. However, due to the Labor Day holiday, the market isn't expected to settle until the end of the first week of September.