US scrap pricing for October is seen sideways to $20/gt lower as a result of expectations for lower outage-related scrap purchases by domestic mills next month and because scrap export data from SteelOrbis reveals Turkish and other scrap buyers have reduced their appetite for US scrap as global steel demand wanes and tariffs continue to challenge profitability metrics.
The weekly scrap expectation results differ little from those reported seven days ago when most scrap survey respondents said October pricing could be sideways to down without citing a price level for primes, citing many of the same reasons reported this week.
“We are hearing sideways (pricing to September) for cuts and shreds, while potentially down on primes again, given continued excess prime scrap in the market,” said one US Midwest scrap insider. “The majority of the discussions in scrap market circles seems to be negative to the tune of $20/gt or so on primes for October,” another scrap insider said. “I believe its the effect of outages on demand at mills coupled with a very poor export market that is contributing to the (price outlook) negativity.”
According to monthly customs data collected by SteelOrbis, through the first seven months of 2025, exports of ferrous scrap to Turkey alone fell by nearly 19 percent from the equivalent period one year earlier.
Insiders predict domestic steel demand will continue to wane because historically, during the period from September through November, US mills perform annual maintenance operations, reducing their scrap requirements as plants are shuttered. Overseas, insiders tell SteelOrbis export ex-US scrap buying from Turkish mills could remain reduced, though insiders report that during ongoing October negotiations -which are nearly complete- Turkey’s import scrap prices have found some fundamental support from the cost and supply side, though no sharp movements in prices are expected short term.
One scrap insider told SteelOrbis the new market call for a $20 decline similar to one seen for primes during September supply negotiations, could exert downward pressure on other scrap grades as well, especially given low levels of domestic demand and lower exports.
“We’re hearing very soft sideways if sideways at all,” said still another US Gulf Coast mill-based scrap buyer. “I am hearing $20 down on primes, which puts pressure on shreds at $10-20 down,” he added. “Cuts might maybe follow shreds or stay sideways if there is no move to the downside.”
The insider remarked that overall domestic scrap supply remains more than adequate in his Gulf Coast region given recent low demand requirements from mills and amid reports that scrap exports might continue to slip.
“I’m already getting additional (HMS and P&S) barge offers for October that have not been offered in prior months,” he added.
During the recent September monthly buy-cycle negotiations, US scrap grades -with the exception of prime scrap grades- settled sideways for a fourth month. Prime grades only, settled $20/gt lower as a result of reports of plentiful busheling inventories at mills and continued low demand expectations, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Based on a predominant October sideways to $20/gt decline expected for prime scrap grades, US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley could settle at $395-420/gt ($403-428/mt), while shredded scrap could settle flat to September at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could trade flat for a fifth month at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), respectively, SteelOrbis monthly scrap data shows.
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could dip $20/gt to $340-360/gt ($347-367/mt), while shredded grades are seen flat again to September at $325-335/gt ($330-342/mt). P&S and HMS grades could likely finish sideways at $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt) and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, to September settles, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.