Players’ expectations in the local scrap market in Poland at the beginning of March are quite contradictory for now.
According to IPHGZ, the Polish Metallurgical Chamber of Industry and Commerce, the average scrap purchase price for delivery to yards in February was registered at PLN 1,076/mt (around €253/mt) for W2 scrap equivalent to HMS I and at PLN 1,166/mt (around €274/mt) for W7 scrap equivalent to bonus grade, respectively higher by PLN 27/mt (€6/mt)and PLN 50/mt (€12/mt) compared to January.
A source on the mills’ side, however, said he believes that purchase prices in March will be stable even though they should be lower. “The weather is better in Poland, but people are afraid of dropping prices,” he said. The first rumors from the market claim that two of the main mills already have sufficient scrap to meet their needs for March, whereas another mill seems to be relying on semi-finished steel instead of scrap, while needing around 30,000 mt of scrap for March. The same mill, however, seems to be experiencing some difficulties in its long steel production, so its situation will continue to be monitored closely.
As for exports, the HMS I price at Gdansk port has been lowered to around €272/mt DAP, but one local exporter expects prices to remain stable or to rise again by around €10/mt in March. Despite the need to increase collection prices at Polish export yards, the increased sea freight is causing higher costs in CFR Turkey-based quotations. Since Turkish mills remain very cautious towards any upward movement in deep sea prices given the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the war’s indirect impacts, and as Polish exporters would not be willing to absorb the higher freight rates themselves, it is likely that scrap exports from Poland will remain sluggish for some time.