Turkey’s import scrap market has continued to move up in each new deal, while sellers are now targeting even higher levels. Market sources inform SteelOrbis that offer prices shared with Turkish mills have moved up this week, though negotiations are proving to be tough.
The collection prices at EU-based export yards have also increased, rising to €270-280/mt DAP over the past week, providing a firm bottom for prices. Meanwhile the euro-dollar exchange rate stands at 1.166, providing support for ex-EU scrap prices, despite the decline in sea freight rates from the region. In the US, sources report that local scrap prices have moved up by $20-30/mt during the January buy-cycle, exerting pressure on the already lower availability of scrap for export yards.
Turkish mills still need to conclude a high number of deals for February shipment. German sub-collectors report that scrap flow to their yards is quite slow, causing them to maintain a cautious towards the current DAP-based bids from exporters. Despite the recent increases in exporters’ bids, one German sub-collector said they will probably wait for higher bids of around €280/mt DAP to sell more of their scrap inventories. More available cargoes could be offered from the US West Coast to Turkey, SteelOrbis understands, though some sources think that the longer delivery term for an ex-West Coast scrap cargo compared to the East Coast may prevent a price increase from that region.
Towards the end of the week, market sources were expecting an ex-US deal and that the lack of availability might still determine prices and, in the new booking done from the US, the slow upward pace of prices has been maintained.
Following the ex-US deal done at $376/mt CFR Turkey, ex-Baltic scrap bookings have been heard in the market today, January 16. An ex-Baltic booking by a Marmara-based Turkish steel producer has been closed at $372/mt CFR, while another one from St. Petersburg has been closed by the same mill with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price at $372.5/mt CFR. These two deals resulted in a 0.61 percent increase in the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Baltic benchmark grade scrap as compared to the previous day.
Despite the increases observed in the scrap segment, Turkey’s local and export rebar prices have failed to follow a similar trend. The lack of rebar demand and Turkish mills’ failure to increase their prices have raised questions among market players about the sustainability of the current firm trend of scrap prices. “While there are no billet options for Turkish mills right now, we are also seeing that increasing rebar prices is not a real option either. So, we remain cautious as regards import scrap purchases and are increasing our prices to secure local scrap flow,” a source at a major Turkish mill commented today.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 1.09 percent week on week. The prices are now 2.48 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, currently in the range of $368-376/mt CFR.
US ferrous scrap prices during the recent January buy-cycle negotiations in the US Ohio Valley and US Northeast regions settled $20-30/gt higher than equivalent December values, based on an outlook for stable domestic and export scrap demand, and a continued paucity of supply at local yards, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
US domestic scrap prices for February delivery are expected to settle sideways to $10-15 per gross ton (gt) higher, market insiders told SteelOrbis in an exclusive weekly survey.
Following recent January SteelOrbis monthly scrap settled prices, which saw US pricing rise $20-30/gt across all regional US scrap grades east of the Mississippi River, a steady to higher February pricing outcome would mean that scrap prices will have risen by more than eight percent since the conclusion of November scrap negotiations.
“Everything that I’m hearing is reflecting a sideways sentiment,” said one US Midwest mill-based scrap buyer. “After $50/gt increases over the last two months, I’m not sure there’s more room for more increases.”
During January buy-cycle negotiations, the price of US Midwest shredded scrap, the basis for much of the recent strength seen in domestic long steel markets, increased an average $30/gt to $415-420/gt ($422-427/mt). For Midwest busheling scrap, the grade most keenly watched by US flat steel traders, prices rose on average by a less robust $20/gt to $415-425/gt ($422-432/mt).
Negotiations in the Italian scrap marketwere initiated very early this week. In the wake of good scrap demand - especially from long steel producers - and of the increases observed in international scrap markets, the first scrap purchasing contracts in Italy this week have been closed at levels up €5-15/mt depending on the scrap categories and producers. E1 scrap prices stand at €285-300/mt, whereas E3 scrap prices stand at €290-310/mt. Prices include delivery and exclude VAT.
In the Iberian Peninsula, E1 scrap prices are in line with the Italian market, respectively at around €300/mt delivered and €325/mt delivered, whereas for E3 they have been reported at around €10/mt higher than the upper end of the range in Italy, i.e., at around €320/mt delivered.
Local scrap price increases have also been observed in Germany and Poland this week. The main reasons lie in the fact that scrap demand from both local mills and export yards is in line with the average needs for this time of the year, but scrap availability is lower than demand due to the harshness of the winter weather conditions.
Local mills in Germany have increased scrap purchase prices by €10-20/mt depending on the producer and category. According to sources, the average price of E1 scrap in Germany currently stands at around €280/mt delivered to mill, which is the same as the DAP-based price paid by exporters at yards for HMS I/II 80:20.
Sources at two different scrap traders in Germany have also reported the persistence of logistical problems, both regarding truck and rail transport, as well as water transport.
As for Poland, the first rumors circulating in the market report increases in local scrap prices by €10-15/mt for January negotiations, and low availability of incoming material both at mills and at export yards. According to SteelOrbis’ estimations, scrap collection prices for HMS I at export yards are expected to be around €275/mt DAP.
Having moved on an upward trend since July last year, Japan’s Kanto scrap export tender has closed with another price increase in the first month of 2026. The total tonnage of the cargo was 20,000 mt, to be shipped to Vietnam or Bangladesh. Over the past month, the Japanese yen moved from 156.7 against the US dollar to JPY 157.72 as of January 12, limiting the increase in the dollar-based price in the tender.
In the Kanto export tender, the highest bid was at JPY 46,771/mt ($296/mt) FAS, up JPY 1,083/mt or $4/mt from last month. The dollar-based price moved up by $4/mt from last month’s $292/mt FAS, taking into account the changes in the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate. The FAS prices translate to JPY 47,771/mt FOB or $303/mt FOB, $5/mt higher as compared to last month.
The Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable over the past two weeks at JPY 43,000/mt ($273/mt), stable on dollar basis. The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 44,000/mt ($279/mt) for the grade in question, down by $1/mt on US dollar basis.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has announced some changes in its local scrap purchase prices, lowering prices in one region, while increasing them in another, seeking to balance scrap purchase prices across its facilities.
The producer’s general price range for H2 grade scrap is currently at JPY 43,500-44,500/mt ($275-282/mt) depending on the mill.
Taiwan’s import scrap market has continued its upward trend over the past week. As billet availability has declined and given the firm sentiments in the international scrap market, Taiwanese buyers have accepted higher prices for ex-US scrap. Japanese offers are also rising following the Kanto scrap export tender.
Offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have remained in the range of $303-309/mt CFR this week.
Japanese sellers’ H1/2 (50:50) offers to the Taiwanese market are currently in a wider range, moving from $315-320/mt CFR to $314-323/mt CFR.
Having started the year with a stable trend, Vietnam’s import scrap market has maintained its firm trend during the current week.
Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have moved up on the upper end by $5/mt week on week to $350-355/mt CFR. Meanwhile, workable levels for Japanese H2 scrap in Vietnam are still at $325/mt CFR, stable week on week.