As anticipated by SteelOrbis last week, Turkey’s import scrap market continued its soft sideways movement in deals done towards the end of last week, which surfaced earlier in the current week.
There were a few stressed cargoes available in the market, SteelOrbis heard, and so a softening was still possible but was not expected to cause a general price decline in the deep sea segment. “Until those stressed cargoes are sold, the market may remain softer. After they are sold, a firm stance is to be expected,” a source said on September 15.
In the middle of the week, Turkey’s import scrap market settled in the range of $327-335.5/mt CFR, with sideways sentiments strengthening. Market sources reported that there were now very few stressed cargoes left in the market with the potential for a price decline, while other suppliers started to show resistance to any lower-priced bids from Turkish mills. Market sources reported that a greater number of Turkish steel producers were in the market seeking scrap cargoes, while US-based scrap suppliers were resisting lower-priced bids. On the other hand, there was still a high number of available ex-EU scrap cargoes, while exporters’ collection prices remained at €235-240/mt DAP. Towards the end of the week, collection prices softened a bit further to €230-235/mt DAP, though bids from exporter scrap yards at €225/mt DAP failed to be accepted by sub-collectors. A Germany-based sub-collector said on September 17 that their collection prices for uncut scrap were at around €195/mt delivered, while last week another sub-collector mentioned that their price was at €210/mt ex-works. Both these levels do not give much room to European sub-collectors to lower their sales prices further.
Turkey has concluded deals for around 20 deep sea cargoes to be shipped in October, while some market sources report that the number is surely higher given the confidential transactions that were not shared with the market. As a result, Turkey is expected to complete most of its deals for October shipments before the SteelOrbis Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting in Munich to be held at the end of the month. Although the US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as many had expected, it disappointed markets by signaling only modest future cuts, citing persistent inflationary pressures and a cooling, but not disintegrated, labor market. The euro-US dollar exchange rate has remained at around 1.18 and is still creating a higher cost for European sellers that have inventories on hand.
“Not many offers happen to be shared with Turkish mills now,” a European scrap seller commented today, September 19, adding, “The bids received from mills are met with resistance.” SteelOrbis has heard that Turkish mills targeted $325/mt CFR for European HMS I/II 80.20 scrap and below $335/mt CFR for ex-US materials. However, sellers have not accepted these price levels. The changes made in Turkey’s inward processing regime are also supporting the sentiments of scrap suppliers. While no concrete evaluation has been made yet, some sources admit the new rules mean they need to export more tonnages as compared to the past and that the increased percentage of locally produced billet in their production may increase their costs. “Probably, scrap will remain more attractive in the coming weeks. Production by iron ore is also more advantageous right now,” a source at a major mill commented. “While we do not expect a significant price recovery for scrap, we think at least a firm stance will be seen until IREPAS,” another seller said.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved down by 0.38 percent week on week. The prices are now 3.71 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $326-335.5/mt CFR.
US scrap pricing for October is now seen sideways to lower next month as a result of reports of adequate mill inventory and unremarkable demand expectations through the end of the year, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
This week’s October scrap assessment differs from the one offered a week prior, when insiders said the October consensus was mixed with one side claiming ongoing mill maintenance outages would quell demand, while the other side said increased long steel output as a result of ongoing long steel capacity ramp-ups at Nucor NC and the new Hybar mill in Arkansas could increase scrap buying.
“One mill told me just a bit ago that October looks down” a Midwest scrap insider told SteelOrbis this week. “He said inventory at his place is decent and his order books are not looking that great through the end of the year.” He added, “November and December are looking sideways right now, while January could move higher.”
Historically, during the period from September through November, most US mills perform annual maintenance, reducing their scrap requirements as plants are shuttered.
During September scrap buy-cycle negotiations, following three months of steady pricing, US Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley settled $20/gt lower at $415-440/gt ($423-448/mt), while shredded scrap settled flat to August at $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades traded flat for a fourth month at $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), respectively, SteelOrbis monthly scrap data show.
The stable trend in the Italian scrap market has continued also in the past week. Steel producers still report having full warehouses and scrap suppliers have good material availability.
Some producers have implemented final downward adjustments in scrap purchase prices - in the order of €5-10/mt depending on the grade - but the situation remains basically unchanged compared to the beginning of the month. On their side, scrap suppliers admit that there may be room for further declines in scrap prices, but, once they reach a certain level, they could begin to resist.
German mills’ negotiations for September scrap purchases have been concluded this week, marking an average drop of €10/mt in price. Scrap supply in the local market seems good overall, but mills have very little need for scrap, which is one of the reasons for the price drop.
The overall market sentiment remains on the low side, and some sources already report expectations for a further scrap price drop in October.
The local Polish scrap market has remained almost silent this week. The overall negative market conditions in Europe and internationally have caused the mood among market players to deteriorate. At the same time, though, the difficulties in finding tonnages in the previous few weeks in the local Polish scrap market have eased.
Sources have confirmed that Polish mills’ negotiations for scrap in September have been concluded at prices down an average of €7-10/mt compared to the previous month. As for collection prices at export yards, they have officially remained at around €250/mt DAP.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has announced upward adjustments for its domestic scrap prices in three regions, up by JPY 500/mt. Since April 9, this is the second upward price revision made by the Japanese steelmaker. After the rises done for the Kyushu and Okayama regions on September 13, Kansai is also on the list this time.
Despite the price increase, the general range for H2 grade scrap purchase prices has remained stable in the range of JPY 37,000-40,500/mt ($249-274/mt) depending on the mill. The scrap purchase prices for the Tokyo Bay, Tahara and Kyushu yards represent the upper end of the price range, while Takamatsu still represents the bottom level.
Taiwan’s import scrap market has remained relatively stable this week, though deals have been closed with a small decline. The domestic rebar market has seen some sales this week after a silence of almost two months. “Sales prices are below our costs [either by import billets or scrap melting],” a source commented.
Over the past week, the offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have softened further on average from $300-305/mt CFR to $295-307/mt CFR. Offered prices for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk cargoes have increased by $2-3/mt to $318-322/mt CFR.
Over the past week, Vietnam’s import scrap market has been characterized by slow trading. Market sources report that the scrap inventories of Vietnamese steel producers are on the high side, while steel demand is sluggish.
The general range of ex-Japan H2 scrap offers to Vietnam has declined by $5/mt on the upper end to $320-325/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers are still at around $340-350/mt CFR Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable week on week at JPY 40,500/mt ($274/mt), unchanged on dollar basis. The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 41,500/mt ($280/mt) for the grade in question, sideways week on week.
With the monsoon season in Pakistan appearing to have come to an end, the import scrap market is expected to remain range-bound until late September. Activity is likely to pick up in October as weather conditions improve and operations normalize. Although the liquidity crisis continues to weigh on buyers, overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, supported by stable production and supply levels. More specifically, offers for ex-EU/UK shredded scrap in containers have settled at $370-375/mt CFR, down by $2/mt on the lower end from two weeks ago, with several deals for ex-UK scrap reported to have been done at $367-370/mt CFR over the past ten days, down by $1-3/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-UAE HMS grade scrap have been voiced at $365/mt CFR, the same as last week, while shredded scrap offers from the UAE have been voiced at $387/mt CFR, down by $1-3/mt over the past week.