As anticipated by SteelOrbis last week, Turkey’s import scrap market has continued its soft sideways movement in deals done towards the end of last week, which have surfaced in the market. The prices in the deals softened very slightly, strengthening the impression that deep sea scrap prices are very close to the bottom if not there yet.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Netherlands deal was done by a Black Sea-based Turkish steelmaker on Thursday, September 11, for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $327/mt CFR. In addition, an ex-Germany booking by a Marmara-based producer is rumored to have been done the same day at $329-330/mt CFR for the same grade, though this information was denied by the buyer at the time of publication. Despite the denial, the price level is considered to be workable by all market players for this origin. Furthermore, an ex-UK transaction was closed by another Black Sea-based steel mill for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $326/mt CFR, done on Friday, September 12. As a result, SteelOrbis reference prices for ex-UK/EU scrap have been revised to $326-330/mt CFR, softening by $0.5/mt as compared to Friday.
Meanwhile, an ex-US scrap booking was also concluded by an Iskenderun-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $335.5/mt CFR, with shredded and bonus grades at $355.5/mt CFR. With this deal, the reference price for this origin has declined by $0.5/mt compared to the indicative price SteelOrbis shared on Friday, while the price gap between ex-UK/EU scrap and ex-US scrap has reached $7.5/mt, in line with market sources’ expectations as shared late last week.
There are still a few stressed cargoes available in the market, SteelOrbis hears, and so a softening is still possible but is not expected to cause a general price decline in the deep sea segment. “Until those stressed cargoes are sold, the market may remain softer. After they are sold, a firm stance is to be expected,” a source said today, September 15. Collection prices in the EU are down to €235-240/mt DAP, but sub-collectors are unwilling to push prices down any further. In the US, the local steel market remains soft, exerting pressure on prime grades but not on HMS grades. Overall, the lack of profitability of Turkish mills remains a strong negative factor. “We consider this year to be done. We do not expect much improvement for the rest of 2025 [in terms of sales and profits],” a source at a major Turkish mill added. “Nobody has earned money this year. Mills and scrap suppliers alike, all lost money at some level,” a European scrap seller said. Another European scrap supplier commented, “Prices have further room to soften towards $320/mt CFR Turkey due to aggressive sellers from the EU. However, when we hit this level, we expect most sellers to resist such prices, and another silent period may be seen while negotiations happen.”
