While Turkish scrap market has not given any concrete price indication with a confirmed deal over the past week, the expectations of a price increase has not changed. The indirect impact of the Iran war continues to create problems amongst all scrap segments and regions, not only for sellers but in the sea transportation and suppliers’ collection activities, almost all over the supply chain.
According to official data, Turkey’s scrap imports in January were 1.7 million mt, the US, Netherlands and the UK being the major suppliers. Over the first two months of 2026, deep sea HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices remained in the range of $364-372/mt CFR on average, continuing the uptrend started in September 2025 when prices were at $331/mt CFR. The rise at that point was mostly explained by the lack of scrap availability, winter conditions and Turkey’s need of scrap.
Since Iran war started on February 28, deep sea scrap prices have not shown any major reaction to the developments with actual deals. Even some softening was seen in Turkey’ import scrap prices in the first week of the war. However, in the 2–3 weeks period from the start of the war on February 28 until mid-March, global oil prices increased by more than 50 percent. Brent oil prices, which were around $70 on February 23, reached the $110–$120 range by mid-March due to the onset of the conflict and risks in the Strait of Hormuz. (As of today, it is trading between $111–$113.) US crude oil prices were in the $60–$65 range before the war, it rose to $95–$98 in March, recording an increase of approximately 40–45 percent. As sea transportation is directly linked with oil prices, the real impact on prices was felt on the freight side. The increased costs for freight are causing additional costs not only for the new potential sales but also for the previously signed contracts. It has already been reported by SteelOrbis that some suppliers have asked for extensions due to lack of vessels with workable freight or trying to renegotiate with the buyer to share the additional cost.
This aside, scrap collection activities in the supplier regions are slowing down. In the EU side, subcollectors report that scrap flow to their own yards is declining as peddlers’ costs have also increased. “Even if they have some material, they are unwilling to sell them due to their expectations of a higher price level in the coming days,” a Germany-based sub-collector mentioned. Another one reported that flow to yards declined by 35-40 percent amid uncertainties and higher costs, adding that “export yards prices are not attractive as compared to the local market’s procurement quotations”. Market sources have warned that the slowing Europe-based manufacturing will also deepen the fall in scrap availability not only during the war but also in the following days up until May. The euro-US dollar exchange rate declining to 1.148 to a dollar may provide some help for EU-based suppliers but not much as they also report that collection prices in their yards at around €265-270/mt DAP do not draw much scrap.
In the current week, Turkish mills reported that it was almost impossible to receive a firm bid from sellers as freight is momentarily changing. “Usually a CFR Turkey-based offer is fixed for two days, now freight can only be fixed for hours. It gives us a very small window to decide,” a source from a major mill commented this week. Another one says, “We agree that deep sea scrap prices have a significant leverage to increase but our finished steel prices and sales are not supporting the expected rise any way”. SteelOrbis hears that a bid from a Turkish mill to two different ex-US scrap suppliers at $385/mt CFR was rejected, offers shared by the sellers now stand at $390/mt CFR and above. A supplier from the EU side said that their aim for the next round is above $380s/mt CFR closer to $385s/mt CFR. “Even Romanian HMS I/II 90:10 scrap is sold at $370/mt CFR Turkey, there is no way European suppliers can accept these levels when Romanian suppliers are now aiming $375s/mt CFR,” a supplier from Romania added to the conversation. As Turkish mills decided to wait out Ramadan holiday to evaluate the situation once again on Monday, March 23, there is a significant expectation that deep sea HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices will move up unless a significant change is seen in the war or the finished steel sales part.
Billet is still not an option for Turkish mills, sources report, with their longer delivery terms and increased price levels. Import billet offers to Turkey stand at $520/mt CFR for Chinese origins, at $475-480/mt CFR for Russian materials mostly for May shipments. Turkey’s local rebar prices from mills stand in the range of $560-585/mt ex-works, sources report that discounts are silently provided for the upper end. The mood in the local rebar market is also changing slightly. Having said there is no plan to stock more rebar in the short term, most traders this week are now convinced that domestic rebar prices are here to stay and are not giving any indication of a softening in the short term. Therefore, back to back sales aside, some traders decided they may increase their inventories a bit with discounted prices.
Under the current conditions and despite any new confirmed transactions done in Turkey yet, SteelOrbis has revised its deep sea scrap prices upwards. Today, SteelOrbis’ prices are increased by $10/mt, ex-UK/EU to $375-380/mt CFR, ex-Baltic to $382.5/mt CFR, ex-US to $384/mt CFR.