US rebar offers have increased in the last week despite no change in demand, signaling a continuation of the slight uptrend.
Most domestic rebar offers now range from approximately $27.00 cwt. to $27.50 cwt. ($595/mt to $606/mt or $540/nt to $550/nt) ex-mill, an increase of $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) from last week. The increase has been attributed to consumers running out of old stock and replenishing at the higher announced prices. Domestic mills in the West Coast and Florida have been more successful at getting the increased prices than mills in heavy import markets in the Gulf like Texas, which are seeing lower domestic prices than $27.00 cwt. ($595/mt or $540/nt). The West Coast and Florida have not seen many import tons recently, while Texas is still sluggish because of pre-purchased Mexican and Turkish material.
With this increase, mills passed most of their announced price increases through and because the US shredded scrap prices haven’t gone down significantly, rebar prices for March shipments are expected to trend sideways. Although the scrap surcharge is expected to dip a bit this month, it is expected that base prices will increase a small amount to level out the effective prices.
Current import rebar offers are the same as last week, with Mexican mills still expecting acceptance of their offered range of $26.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($573/mt to $595/mt or $520/nt to $540/nt) delivered to US border states. Meanwhile, Turkish mills are still holding out for their preferred price of $27.00 cwt. and above ($595/mt or $540/nt) delivered to US Gulf ports with little success for new orders. Although some traders bought Turkish rebar when it was lower, and are selling it with some success in the range of $26.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($573/mt to $595/mt or $520/nt to $540/nt) delivered to US Gulf ports.
The latest import license data from the US Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA) show that rebar import permits increased in January from December (preliminary census data), at 20,175 mt and 19,615 mt respectively. Additionally, license data already show import permits at 26,300 mt for February, and there’s still over two weeks of reporting to go.
Most rebar imports in January came from Mexico (18,577 mt) and Dominican Republic (1,364 mt). Import statistics from Turkey are not currently available, but some shipments are expected to arrive as early as March.
