While most US rebar spot prices have stayed within last week's reported range, SteelOrbis has heard of some mills offering deals slightly below.
In stark reflection of domestic US rebar's dwindling demand levels, spot prices have become vulnerable to softening in the last week. The majority of spot transactions are still in the reported range of $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($794-$816/mt or $720-$740/nt) ex-mill, but more and more transactions are falling below the $36.00 cwt. level, by up to $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) less. In this context, there is a chance that domestic mills could drop their official asking prices (which are currently around the same level as spot prices) for May shipments, even though April shredded scrap pricing is likely to go sideways. The scrap trend is already apparent on the East Coast, and while Midwest pricing is likely to follow, there are also rumors of a slight dip in shredded pricing, by about $5/lt. But even if the scrap trend turns slightly downward, it would not be the primary cause of a rebar pricing downturn--for the first time in a long time, demand would be the main culprit.
Low demand for rebar is also plaguing markets outside the US, such as in Turkey--sources tell SteelOrbis that Turkish mills have become very flexible with rebar pricing. In fact, they are so eager to move product that certain mills are offering discounts on other products--such as wire rod--as long as buyers take rebar stock off their hands. However, there are not many takers in the US for Turkish rebar, even at the attractively low price of $32.50-$33.50 cwt. ($717-$739/mt or $650-$670/nt) duty paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, so new offers have not affected sales prices in the US quite yet.
As for rebar south of the border, Mexican mills have not offered anything new from last week's price range of $33.00-$34.00 cwt. ($728-$750/mt or $660-$680/nt) duty paid FOB delivered to US border states. However, they are furtively following the US market, and if US mills indeed make any official price move this month, Mexican mills will likely follow in turn.
Keeping a keen eye on the US market has helped Mexico become the top source of imported rebar into the US, but for the last two months, Turkey has surpassed Mexico in volume. According to license data from the US Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA), the US imported 27,469 mt of rebar from Mexico in March, just under the 30,521 mt from Turkey. In February, the distinction was more pronounced; the US imported 16,517 mt (preliminary census data) from Mexico, while it brought in a whopping 44,394 mt from Turkey--the largest amount in over a year. However, other sources of imported rebar lagged behind significantly last month; the US imported 2,779 mt from Dominican Republic and 1,835 mt from Canada.
