Prices for import billet in Turkey and the MENA region have increased amid rises in freight and insurance rates after the surge in oil prices, following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Major billet exporters - Chinese and ASEAN mills - have not changed prices on FOB basis much, but CFR levels in all big importing locations have added at least $5-10/mt just over the past two days. Rising freight rates have been seen on other routes as well, including Russia-Turkey.
The ex-China billet reference price is stable at $445-450/mt FOB, while Indonesian offers have rolled back by $5/mt on March 3 to $455/mt FOB after just one day of increase. “Dexin holds its slabs and wire rod [offers] higher, as they have good order books. For billet, there is no positive change, and most buyers try to find real CFR-based offers,” an Asian source said. He added that new offers for Chinese 5SP billet are assessed at $470/mt CFR Manila, up by $5-10/mt CFR from the tradable level last week.
In Turkey, Chinese billet offers have already been heard at $490-495/mt CFR, up from $478-485/mt CFR a week ago, with freight rates estimated at $40-42/mt for a 40,000 mt cargo at the lowest (up $5-7/mt from the rates seen earlier). Some sources report “real” offers for Chinese and ASEAN billets at $495-500/mt CFR Turkey.
Considering such high Asian billet offers and the weak performance of rebar in Turkey, customers are going to focus on scrap purchases or will look for alternative cheaper billet options. Briefly, Russian billet may become a good option for Turkish importers, but ex-Russia prices are also on the rise due to the increase in freight rates. The freight rates for medium cargoes of billets from Novorossiysk to Turkey’s Black Sea/Marmara regions are at $25-28/mt and for southern Turkey freight is over $30/mt. In such conditions, the lowest offers for Russian billet are at $465-468/mt CFR (from previous deals at $460/mt CFR a week ago), but some mills already target above $470/mt CFR. Moreover, fewer vessels are available on routes from Novorossiysk at the moment after the recent damage caused to an oil terminal and infrastructure at the port by a military strike.
The situation in the GCC’s import billet market is even more complicated. Shipments of already booked semis from Iran are terminated for now. “There is no freight for billet from Asia at all. Nobody will take the risk to go to the GCC,” a source said, commenting on offers to Saudi Arabia, adding that even the south of the country is not safe now. At least 150 tankers are now waiting in open Gulf waters, but some Iranian and Chinese vessels are heard to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
The recent increase in freight rates globally is due to the surge in oil prices, with Brent crude oil jumping above $80/Bbl, the highest level since January 2025, and some analysts predict prices even above $100/Bbl if the crisis continues over a longer time.