US hot-rolled coil prices continued higher this week, rising another $5/nt, amid growing industry reports that spot bookings at domestic mills are on the rise, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Interestingly, continued flat steel price increases come at a time when domestic scrap prices in the US Midwest are reported off by $10-20/gt from month-ago levels. As finished steel demand has remained scant, insiders told SteelOrbis some mills are enhancing thin margins by buying cheaper scrap while offering higher-priced finished steel supply.
Flat steel market insiders said there’s a higher likelihood now that flat steel markets could continue higher near term as ongoing 50 percent Section 232 steel tariffs continue to reduce imports to historical minimums, and as some HRC mills may emerge from maintenance earlier this year closer to the beginning of November rather nearer to December.
“The [flat steel] market is getting tighter,” remarked one US flat steel market insider when asked about this week’s HRC pricing situation. “The mills are getting booked up, and now they seem to be closed for the year for some materials,” he said. “For hot-rolled coils, some of [the mills] are reporting lead times extending into mid-December,” he added.
The insiders added that recent increased flat steel demand has caused recently low lead times of 3-5 weeks to extend to 6-8 weeks.
“We should see within the next few weeks how the market will react with the [ongoing] maintenance from the mills,” the insider said. “We are seeing a lot more demand in the marketplace compared with a few weeks ago, and prices should start feeling the pressure of extended lead times.”
The weekly SteelOrbis HRC price average rose another $5/nt to on average $815/nt ($898/mt), or $40.75/cwt., up from $810/nt ($893/mt), or $40.50/cwt., one week prior. After three straight weeks rising prices, current SteelOrbis data shows HRC prices have increased nearly two percent since bottoming during the week of Sept. 22 at $800/nt ($882/mt), or $40.00/cwt.
On the raw materials front, during recent October scrap supply negotiations, US Midwest prime busheling scrap fell on average $20/gt, settling at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt). Shredded scrap fell less, setting on average $10/gt less than equivalent September settles to $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt). The latest November outlook for domestic scrap is called sideways to the overall lower October settles, meaning no further price declines are likely given a growing expectation for better demand as markets extend further into the 4th quarter.
“I have heard some scrap folks say [scrap] pricing could be up in November,” remarked one Midwest scrap insider this week, offering a differing perspective than most respondents who expected November scrap pricing to settle sideways. “HRC mills will be post maintenance [have completed annual maintenance],” he added, “and the Turks didn’t buy billets from China this month.”
In other flat steel markets, following a previous weekly dip, cold rolled coil pricing finished the week up $10/nt to on average $1,015/nt ($1,119/mt or $50.75/cwt.), up from a weekly average $995/nt ($1,097/mt), or $49.75/cwt., a week ago. Given another increase in HRC prices and a weekly rise in CRC values, the current spread between HRC and CRC steel grades stands at $200/nt ($220/mt) or $10/cwt., up from $185/nt, ($204/mt), or $9.25/cwt., a week earlier.
In the coated steel markets, following an earlier weekly $2/nt dip to on average $908/nt ($1001/mt), or $45.40/cwt., weekly spot pricing is estimated for the new week amid scant daily trade at $900/nt ($992/mt) or $45.00/cwt.
On the longer term supply side, insiders said they hope the recent meeting between US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney will reduce ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs and allow more Canadian and Mexican finished steel to flow into US markets, easing ongoing mill supply concerns and helping to reverse recent price increases announced by US mills.
This week, Nucor’s Consumer Spot Price (CSP) -the posted price it charges for hot-rolled coils across all of its mills- was reported steady for a seventh week, the mill said in a letter to its customers. Nucor’s CSP was reported at $875/nt ($965/mt), or $43.75/cwt., following a previous $10/nt increase from $865/nt ($954/mt) or $43.25/cwt., the week of Aug. 25. Nucor’s California Steel Industries (CSI) base price was also steady again at $935/nt ($1,031/mt), or $46.75/cwt., following its previous $10/nt increase from $925//nt ($1,020/mt), or $46.25/cwt., during the same week.
Interestingly, on Oct. 17, HRC continuous futures contracts for March 2026 delivery on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traded up $3.00/nt to $875/nt ($965/mt) or $43.75/cwt. while October HRC traded $2.00/nt less on the day at $813/nt (896/mt), or $40.65/cwt.
As previously reported by SteelOrbis, market insiders said the announcement from key Canadian flat steel producer Algoma Steel may have contributed to the recent rebound in US HRC pricing from a recent low of $800/nt. Strong futures prices for HRC, fueled by growing uncertainty over trade tariffs’ affect on domestic and global supply chains also are contributing to recent domestic HRC price gains, they said. At last report, HRC futures for October delivery traded at $813/nt ($896/mt), or $40.65/cwt., off from $815/gt ($898/mt), or $40.75/cwt., one week earlier as futures traders continue to hedge against growing tariff and global economic uncertainty.
On October 1, Canadian steelmaker Algoma Steel Group Inc., announced it had received a major financial boost with C$500 million in liquidity support from the Canadian federal and Ontario provincial governments. This funding aimed to give Algoma the flexibility it needs to withstand US trade measures and accelerate its decarbonizing and modernization plans.
Market insiders say the 50 percent import tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel production has in effect effect locked imports from the US’ two key suppliers out of the market, stressing domestic producers to increase plant capacity utilization rates at a time when most mills remain headlong into yearly maintenance activities. Reports of supply allocations, especially from rebar mills, continued this week as imports dwindle.