US flat steel pricing was steady to higher this week, as hot-rolled coil values continued their limited ascent, fueled by continued strength in futures markets, a more bullish outlook for November scrap pricing, and a growing sense that local supply could remain constrained through the 4th quarter as tariffs continue to slash imports, pressuring mills to increase steel output, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Flat steel market insiders report that there’s a higher likelihood now that HRC prices could continue their recent higher trend as ongoing 50 percent Section 232 steel tariffs continue to slash imports at a time when many HRC mills remain in maintenance operations. Insiders say some mills could be forced to finish annual maintenance operations sooner this year, resulting in improved raw materials demand in the form of scrap during upcoming November supply negotiations.
And, with reports indicating that mills are more booked up recently, lead times have extended from 3-5 weeks to 6-8 weeks as mills struggle to cover supply requirements.
“Lead times currently are the longest seen since 2021,” one flat steel insider told SteelOrbis. “This situation gives the mills greater pricing power.”
Insiders say HRC steel futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange continue to advance because of uncertainty about the long-term impact of trade tariffs on local supply chains, as well as a continued dim global economic outlook. Currently, there is a $28/nt ($31/mt) differential between where the October HRC contract recently traded at $814/nt and where the November contract now trades at $842/nt. The spread further widens to $47/ton for December contracts versus October.
The weekly SteelOrbis HRC price average rose another $5/nt to on average $820/nt ($904/mt) or $41.00/cwt., up from $815/nt ($898/mt), or $40.75/cwt., one week ago. SteelOrbis data shows HRC prices have increased a full 2.5 percent since bottoming during the week of Sept. 22 at $800/nt ($882/mt), or $40.00/cwt.
On the raw materials front, November scrap pricing is expected to trade sideways to October, which was $10-20/gt lower versus September settlement, indicating a more bullish raw materials outlook. During October scrap supply negotiations, US Midwest prime busheling scrap fell on average $20/gt, settling at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt). Shredded scrap fell less, setting on average $10/gt lower to $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt).
In other flat steel markets, following an earlier weekly increase two weeks prior, cold rolled coil pricing finished the week steady at $1,015/nt ($1,119/mt or $50.75/cwt.), up from a weekly average $995/nt ($1,097/mt), or $49.75/cwt. Given another slight increase in HRC prices and weekly flat CRC values, the current spread between HRC and CRC steel grades stands at $195/nt ($215/mt), or $9.75/cwt., down from $200/nt ($220/mt) or $10/cwt., a week prior.
In the coated steel markets, following an earlier weekly $2/nt dip to on average $908/nt ($1001/mt), or $45.40/cwt., weekly spot pricing was steady at $900/nt ($992/mt) or $45.00/cwt.