Nucor's move last week to roll over February plate prices into March didn't come as a surprise. The US domestic plate market's upward pricing momentum has stalled and sources tell SteelOrbis that mills are more concerned about not allowing spot prices still in the range of $46.50-$48.50 cwt. ($1,025-$1,069/mt or $930-$970/nt) ex-Midwest mill from drifting down than trying to push through any kind of increase. The drop in February scrap prices coupled with a surge of imported plate set to arrive in US ports in March will no doubt put substantial downward pressure on domestic spot prices. In the last couple weeks buyers already slowed purchases and retreated into wait-and-see mode under expectations that domestic spot prices will begin losing ground within the next couple weeks.
US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data indicate 111,636 mt (license data) of cut-to-length plate arrived in the US in January compared to 62,864 mt (preliminary census data) in December. January imports arrived with tags close to domestic spot prices, according to one trader in the South, and thus won't affect US domestic prices much. However, substantially less-expensive--as much as $8.00-$10.00 cwt. ($176-$220/mt or $160-$200/nt) lower--plate imports are scheduled to arrive the next two months at even higher volumes. Because import sources such as Turkey, Korea and Brazil booked so heavily over the last couple months, they aren't actively offering to the US right now, but the US domestic market's impending downtrend is making futures interest sluggish anyhow.