Upward momentum in US flats market comes to a stop

While US domestic flat-rolled steel demand is steady, and even strengthening in some areas such as automotive, there is still more than enough supply to cover that demand, and domestic mills are finding resistance from their customers to book March orders at higher prices. Asking prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) are approximately $38.50 cwt. ($849/mt or $770/nt) and $44.00 cwt. ($970/mt or $880/nt) for cold rolled coil--well above current US domestic spot prices (see below char). Flat rolled spot market prices have steadied since last week following weeks of slowly climbing upward as the restart of RG Steel's Sparrows Point blast furnace and the restart of ArcelorMittal's Ohio flats mill have domestic buyers concerned that the market's uptrend may soon come to an end.

Another reason for US buyers' reluctance to pay even higher prices is the expectation that domestic scrap prices will retreat back to December levels next month. Additionally, a substantial amount of Russian HRC is expected to arrive in the US in March, with tags as much $5.00-$7.00 cwt. ($110-$154/mt or $100-$140/nt) below current US domestic spot prices. With mounting uncertainty over both the short-term and long-term direction of domestic spot prices, futures booking activity is extremely quiet, as offer prices to the US are too high to stir much interest.