Oversupply forces softening in US flats market

While US demand for flats continues to be steady, an overabundance of steel in the marketplace is driving down spot prices.

As most logistical and production problems that had been affecting the supply of flat-rolled steel have been alleviated, and steel production levels remain high with capacity utilization rates hovering the mid-70s, the supply of flat-rolled steel has surpassed demand. Demand levels have remained steady, however, with ample spot market availability for flats (especially hot rolled coil) buyers are finding an easier time negotiating deals below official mill asking prices.

Asking prices at flats mills are still $45.00 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt) for hot rolled coil (HRC) and $50.00 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt) for cold rolled coil (CRC)-unchanged from late February/early March. However, spot prices are no longer at mill asking prices as they have been consistently over the last month. Spot prices for HRC are now $43.00-$44.00 cwt. ($948-$970/mt or $860-$880/nt ) ex-Midwest mill and CRC spot prices are in the $48.00-$49.00 cwt. ($1,058-$1,080/mt or $960-$980/nt) ex-Midwest mill range-both down $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) on the high end from previously reported ranges a week ago.

Generally, spot availability for CRC is limited, particularly due to contracts, while spot tonnage of HRC is plentiful and more and more deals have been made below this week's hot rolled coil spot prices.

Significantly lower import offers have also been contributing to softening US domestic flat-rolled steel prices in the last couple weeks. Mexican flats prices are currently $39.00-$41.00 cwt. ($860-$904/mt or $780-$820/nt) for HRC and $44.00-$45.00 cwt. ($970-$992/mt or $880-$900/nt) for CRC, both FOB loaded truck delivered into Houston. Russian offers of HRC are still the most competitive for US buyers, and an increasing number of deals have been heard below the $38.00-$40.00 cwt. ($838-$882/mt or $760-$800/nt) duty-paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf Ports sales price.

On the West Coast, Korean HRC import offers to the US are putting pressure on US domestic West Coast HRC spot prices of $46.00-$48.00 cwt. ($1,014-$1,058/mt or $920-$960/nt) ex-mill.  Korean import offers to the US are approximately $39.00-$41.00 cwt. ($860-$904/mt or $780-$820/nt) duty-paid FOB loaded truck in US West Coast ports, however deals for as much as $1.00 cwt. under the range have been reported. As for West Coast domestics, mill order books remain open for May, after opening about three weeks ago (West Coast mill order books for March and April delivery closed less than a week after opening).

**Duty-paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports