This week, the EU HRC market has continued to show upward movement in local prices, with some industry sources believing that another round of price increases for June delivery coils remains a possibility. However, others contend that, without a recovery in demand, any further hikes would be rejected. At the same time, the market has been processing the details of the safeguard adjustments released on Tuesday, March 11, but it seems that the changes proposed by the European Commission did not meet the expectations of most market players.
More specifically, local HRC prices in Europe have increased again this week, with offers for mainly May delivery HRC from mills in northern Europe reported at €640-660/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt week on week, though the tradable price levels have been at €630-640/mt ex-works, against €630/mt ex-works last week. Besides, according to sources, offers for ex-Italy HRC in Germany have been voiced at €650-660/mt delivered.
Meanwhile, offers from Italian mills have been voiced at €610-630/mt ex-works, with most sources claiming that mills target further price hikes for June delivery to at least €650-670/mt ex-works levels. However, workable prices have been reported at €610-620/mt ex-works, mainly the same as last week.
“Although steel demand is still rather weak, the revised safeguard measures set to take effect on April 1 are expected to restrict the availability of imported coil, while more limited supply of HRC could potentially drive an increase in apparent consumption,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
Notably, this week ArcelorMittal unveiled plans for a significant maintenance program in France, requiring a 90-day shutdown of a blast furnace in Dunkirk. Besides, according to sources, this week German steelmaker Salzgitter has invoked force majeure on flat steel deliveries due to a fire at its hot strip mill in late February.
In the import segment, most buyers have remained cautious in terms of new bookings, following the adjustments announced to the safeguard measures on Tuesday. Specifically, contrary to expectations, no significant reductions in quotas have been implemented. However, for HRC, the cap has been lowered from the 15 percent initially proposed in July 2024 to 13 percent. The total allocation under the “other countries” safeguard category for HRC has been set at 856,769 mt for the April-June 2025 period. This means that each supplier within this category will be restricted to a maximum of 111,379 mt, equivalent to 13 percent of the total quota, for exports to the EU during this timeframe.
Import HRC offers from a steel producer in Indonesia have been voiced at around €545/mt CFR, the same as last week, while another Indonesian mill has been offering its coils at €560/mt CFR southern Europe. Offers for ex-Thailand HRC have been reported at €590/mt CFR Spain. Besides, according to sources, a deal for around 60,000-70,000 mt of ex-Malaysia HRC has been signed at €550/mt CFR. Besides, offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at €590/mt CFR.
Besides, HRC offers from Turkey have been reported at €590-600/mt CFR, excluding duty, up by at least €10-20/mt over the past week.
“Smaller Asian suppliers like Malaysia may have the opportunity to expand their shipments to the EU, while Turkey and India remain reliable choices, benefiting from sufficient individual import quotas,” a European trader told SteelOrbis. In particular, as of the last update of EU quotas on March 7, Turkey has used 37.53 percent of its total quota amount (591,410 mt) for the January-March period, while suppliers from India used only 1.14 percent of a total of 555,088 mt, according to the SteelOrbis EU quota tracking system.
