Turkey’s hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have additionally softened by the end of the week, mainly under pressure from low domestic and export demand. Buyers are cautious towards purchases since they are expecting a further price weakening in both in the EU and China.
Currently, the realistic domestic levels of HRC offers for April-May delivery in Turkey are at $675-695/mt ex-works, versus $680-700/mt ex-works seen earlier this week. Some offers are still above $700/mt ex-works for shorter lead times, but these are not considered workable. “I think at least two mills will not refuse to sell at $670/mt ex-works today if they get a large order,” a trader told SteelOrbis. As for exports, given the weakening of the European market, the price idea of buyers is not above $620/mt FOB. Currently, $660-670/mt FOB is the level considered by mills, but many expect that $650-655/mt FOB would be acceptable to the mills.
Import offers are basically represented by China at $580-590/mt CFR for April shipments, stable from earlier this week and down around $10/mt from mid-February. Sellers report no activity is seen since ex-China prices are expected to move down further. “There will be bookings once the market feels the bottom, so prices need to soften a little more. Then we will see deals, since a lot of purchases have been delayed,” a supplier told SteelOrbis. Some players believe $560-565/mt CFR levels may be the rock bottom, while non-VAT suppliers may even go lower than that.
Aside from China, Turkey could theoretically be interested in Egyptian material, but only if the supplier is not able to sell sufficient volumes to the EU. “In terms of the quota, it is not very good timing for them to sell to Europe, since one might deliver in May, but there is a chance the material will have to wait for clearance until July. So, buyers may be hesitant,” a source said. The most recent offers from Egypt have been reported at $665-670/mt CFR for May shipments, and such a level may be accepted only as an effective price, players assume. Offers from India and South Korea are at $650/mt CFR and $680/mt CFR levels, which is not workable for Turkish buyers, also considering the long lead time.
