The US flat rolled mills have announced increases and they have, since last week, continued to push for their new price levels. Although the momentum is clearly still on the supply side, not all of the increases being sought have been fully absorbed by buyers.
This may be for good reason. Buyers continue to be skeptical, if not fearful, seeing a potential repeat of the inflated market conditions of 2008, prior to price collapse. Therefore, many are continuing their course of restocking within "need-right-now" levels. But restocking they must, because the inventories are still a level that are historically low for this time of the year.
The higher end of HRC spot prices have increased since last week and now range from approximately $32.00 cwt. to $34.00 cwt. ($705/mt to $750/mt or $640/nt to $680/nt) ex-Midwest mills. Meanwhile, CRC spot prices have remained at the same level since last week with most offers continuing to be seen from around $38.00.cwt. to $39.00 cwt. ($838/mt to $860/mt or $760/nt to $780/nt) ex-Midwest mills. Looking forward, HRC and CRC pricing is likely to continue to rise and absorb the estimated $2.50 cwt. ($55/mt or $50/nt) latest mill increase, not because of increased demand, but because the sellers' market continues to prevail. Producers are pushing for a $35.00 cwt. ($772/mt or $700/nt) increase for HRC and about a $40.00 cwt. ($882/mt or $800/nt) increase for CRC. Ultimately, spot prices will begin to trend up as inventories are low and buyers will thus need to buy.
In terms of imports, there aren't very many attractive offers out there. Mexico continues to offer HRC at about $32.50 cwt. to $33.50 cwt. ($717/mt to $739/mt or $650/nt to $670/nt) delivered to customers in Texas. Meanwhile, Russian CRC offers continue to flutter about at around $40.00 cwt. to $41.00 cwt. ($882 to $904/mt or $800/nt to $820/nt), FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, but tons are limited. The bottom line is that for as long as US flat rolled market conditions continue to be seen as a highly volatile, unless imports are being offered significantly below domestic pricing, they will not find very many takers.
License data from the US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA) demonstrate that the total import tonnage of HRC has increased from 151,286 mt (census data) in January to 164,321 mt (license data) in February, with leading importer Canada having decreased imports from 66,610 mt in January to 54,286 mt in February. The only other significant importers of HRC in February were Australia, at 40,797 mt; Korea, at 28,639 mt; and Mexico, at 16,804 mt.
License data from the US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA) demonstrate that the total import tonnage of CRC has decreased from 67,758 mt (census data) in January to 55,606 mt (license data) in February, with leading importer Canada having decreased imports from 21,388 mt in January to 19,481 mt in February. Canada is the only country to have imported more than 10,000 mt of CRC to the US in February.