This week, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has showed mixed dynamics across key regions. A recovery in HRC futures seen at the beginning of the week improved sentiment for ex-China exports, though spot prices have remained largely flat. Vietnam’s market stayed volatile due to a lack of clear direction. Indian export prices moved sideways, with no real pickup in trade, except in Europe where several cargoes have been sold. In the EU, domestic prices held steady, and some import activity resumed - especially from India, following antidumping duty exemptions. UAE buyers continued to show interest in Chinese HRC despite subdued trade ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, Turkish spot prices rose in response to higher HRC costs, but demand failed to follow suit.
The export market in China has failed to react strongly to the futures price recovery with only some mills and traders targeting small rises at the beginning of the week, while in general market sources have remained cautious, not expecting near-term support for fundamentals. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC given by major Chinese mills have settled at $470-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $475/mt FOB, up by $2.5/mt week on week. At the same time, offers from smaller mills and traders have been voiced at $460-470/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week, as “they have already been offering at a higher level, so no big change,” a market source said. At the same time, according to sources, offers from a number of traders, mainly from non-VAT traders, have been voiced at $455/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week. Ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC offers in Vietnam, which are not targeted by antidumping (AD) duty, have been voiced at $473-475/mt CFR mainly for end-of-May shipment, down by $2-3/mt week on week. At the same time, according to sources, during the past seven days several deals for around 20,000 mt in total of ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 have been signed at $470-475/mt CFR, for May shipment.
In Vietnam, import HRC prices have continued to fluctuate this week following ups and downs in HRC futures prices in China and continuous changes in mood among suppliers. At the same time, market insiders report a slight demand recovery in Vietnam, with several deals for import HRC signed with additional discounts this week. Specifically, while offers for ex-China Q355 HRC and SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $490/mt CFR and $490-495/mt CFR, respectively, down by $5/mt week on week, other foreign suppliers have been more active with new offers in Vietnam given less competition with Chinese SAE1006 HRC suppliers due to AD duty. Thus, offers for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at $520-530/mt CFR, while most bids have been reported at $510/mt CFR and a deal for around 5,000 mt is reported to have been signed at $508/mt CFR for May shipment. Besides, offers from ex-Indonesia SAE1006 HRC have been reported at $530/mt CFR for June shipment, compared to $510-520/mt CFR last week. Suppliers from South Korea and Taiwan have also returned to the Vietnamese market with new offers at $520/mt CFR for May shipment, though no new deals have been reported so far since, according to sources, buyers’ bids have been at $510/mt CFR and slightly below. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $490-510/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to the most competitive offers from China, while the higher end corresponds to the tradable price from other foreign suppliers.
Ex-India HRC prices have mostly been maintained unchanged by large mills in the past week at $490-510/mt FOB for end-of-April and May shipment, while trade activity was just about kept alive by small-tonnage sales in the Middle East. According to sources, trade activity has been very slow during the past week, with only occasional deals reported in the market, such as a sale of 10,000 mt of HRC at $490/mt FOB for delivery to a Bahrain-based trading firm.
At the same time, European HRC buyers have been more active in buying ex-India HRC again lately with at least three deals for around 30,000 mt in total disclosed this week. Specifically, several deals for ex-India HRC have been signed with European buyers at $625-630/mt CFR in Italy and Antwerp for shipments at the end of April and in May, which translates to around €580-584/mt CFR. Besides, another Indian mill has signed another deal with an Italian buyer at $615/mt CFR, which translates to around €570/mt CFR.
The domestic offer prices for HRC in Europe have remained mainly unchanged this week, though EU mills have still been aiming to increase their offers for June delivery coils. Specifically, offers from mills have remained unchanged at €640-660/mt ex-works for May-June delivery in northern Europe and at €620-650/mt ex-works for delivery in May in Italy. At the same time, according to sources, most mills, especially those in the north, have still been aiming to increase their offers to €670-680/mt ex-works for June deliveries. However, the current tradable price level has been estimated at €630-650/mt ex-works, the same as last week. Besides, workable prices in Italy have been reported at €610-620/mt ex-works, moving sideways week on week. In the import segment, several deals for ex-India HRC have been signed with European buyers at $625-630/mt CFR Italy and Antwerp for shipments at the end of April and in May, which translates to around €580-584/mt CFR. Besides, another Indian mill has signed another deal with an Italian buyer at $615/mt CFR, which translates to around €570/mt CFR. Furthermore, talk about an ex-Turkey HRC deal signed at $635/mt CFR, or around €588/mt CFR including duty, has also been circulating in the market, though this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication.
Turkey’s HRC pricing has remained high in the import and domestic segments, while on exports the mills are somewhat flexible. Particularly, while earlier Turkish mills were insisting on $575-585/mt FOB for June shipments, this week $560-575/mt FOB were considered available from some of the suppliers for specific orders. Local prices are at $585-595/mt ex-works while the level of $600/mt ex-works has not been heard as much this week. Import offers from China have been hovering around $485-495/mt CFR for end-May and June shipments, in line with the past week. No fresh deals have been reported while Turkish buyers are said to be looking to book at $480/mt CFR and below. Egypt has announced a $20/mt price increase in offers to an indicative level of $590/mt CFR Turkey. Moreover, a deal at $580/mt CFR has been rumored in the market, while some sources consider the level to be overpriced. Russia has not been in the market this week while the market expected the mills to return with around $515/mt CFR offers for May production.
In North Africa, HRC import offers have been reported from China at $510-515/mt CFR Egypt and $530-535/mt CFR Algeria with no fresh transactions heard around. Export offers from the mentioned countries have been heard this week at $565-570/mt FOB and $570-580/mt FOB, respecttively. As a result, Egypt is targeting to increase its workable export prices by $20-35/mt compared to the previous round, while Algeria increased the offers by around $10-15/mt.
In the UAE, while trade has begun to slow owing to the approaching holiday, Emirati customers in need of stocks have chosen Chinese material this week. According to sources, Emirati buyers purchased 10,000 mt of SS400 HRC from China for end-of-April shipment at $495/mt CFR. As a result, SS400 offers from China to the UAE have remained fairly stable since last week, at around $495-505/mt CFR, though some traders are offering higher levels at $510/mt CFR. By the end of the week, information has appeared about 10,000 mt ex-China HRC sales to the UAE at $495-500/mt CFR, while Saudi Arabia and Oman have booked 5,000 mt at $500/mt CFR and 10,000-15,000 mt at $495/mt CFR, respectively.
Indian suppliers, on the other hand, have remained stable, with offers this week ranging at $520-530/mt CFR for shipment in late April and May. Moreover, HRC offers from Japan and Taiwan have been maintained unchanged for May shipment at $520/mt CFR and $525-530/mt CFR, respectively. However, sources say that lower levels are available from Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers for serious customers at $510/mt CFR and $520/mt CFR, respectively.