Global hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have been largely stable this week, with trading activity supported by bookings of Chinese, Indian and other-origin material at mostly unchanged levels or with slight discounts. While the underlying demand across key markets has remained subdued, workable price levels have encouraged some buyers to secure volumes. In the ex-India HRC market, sellers have attempted to push up offers, but buyers have pushed back, resulting in deals being concluded mainly at stable or marginally discounted prices. Vietnam’s Formosa announced an increase in domestic HRC prices, supported by a slight improvement in import sentiments and expectations of tighter regional availability. Meanwhile, Turkey’s HRC import market has shown a marginal improvement, with several cargoes reported to have been booked, although overall volumes remained moderate. In the UAE, the HRC market has seen only selective buying, for ex-India HRC in particular, as firm price levels outweighed end-user demand, keeping volumes limited. Ex-Russia material has continued to be the most competitive option in Egypt, maintaining its price advantage despite the existing safeguard measures. Meanwhile, in Europe, limited HRC supply has helped support mills’ sentiments, even as demand has stayed weak. Import activity has remained muted, with talk of potential ex-India discounts failing to translate into significant bookings.
Ex-China HRC export prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, showing only minor fluctuations amid limited trading activity. The price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $475-480/mt FOB, compared to $470-485/mt FOB last week, though with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. At the same time, while offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $460-470/mt FOB, the same as last week, deal prices have been voiced mainly at $460-465/mt FOB levels. According to sources, Chinese suppliers have managed to sell at least 50,000 mt of HRC to Turkey at around $460-465/mt FOB, or around $495-500/mt CFR. Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at around $500-505/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range, though a number of sources have still been reporting offers at slightly lower levels of around $495/mt CFR. At the same time, market participants widely note that the Chinese domestic market has stalled again in a cooler environment, with a lack of fresh drivers to support further price increases. At the same time, although mills are benefiting from improved margins and slightly higher output, downstream demand remains subdued, and inventories are gradually edging up. As of January 16, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,315/mt ($472/mt), increasing by 0.33 percent compared to the previous trading day, January 15.
In Vietnam, following a slight increase in local prices from Hoa Phat Group at the beginning of the month, on Monday, January 12, local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) also revised its domestic offers up by around $12/mt month on month, following the disappearance of cheap non-VAT ex-China HRC prices from the market. More specifically, after the announcement at the beginning of the month by the other major local producer Hoa Phat Group of new local HRC offers at slightly higher levels, this week FHS also increased its new prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC, by $12/mt month on month, to $504/mt CIF for orders for a minimum of 20,000 mt, while offers for smaller orders of 2,000-5,000 mt and below settled at $512/mt CIF. Meanwhile, import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC have been voiced at $480-485/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $488-490/mt CFR, the same as at the end of last week.
Ex-India HRC export prices have remained largely stable across key destinations in the past week, with limited transactions reported and mixed signals emerging from different regions. While some Indian mills have attempted to test slightly higher offer levels on the back of stronger domestic market conditions and tighter supply, buyers in major import markets have continued to push back with lower bids. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have remained at $470-475/mt FOB for the Middle East, but at least two large integrated mills have attempted to nudge them up to $480-490/mt FOB. However, according to sources, a deal for around 10,000-20,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed at $490-495/mt CFR for late February shipment, which translates to $467-470/mt FOB. Besides, talk about a deal for 25,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed for delivery to Egypt at $465-470/mt FOB, or around $505-510/mt CFR, has been circulating in the market. However, this deal has not been confirmed by the time of publication. Furthermore, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $490/mt CFR, compared to $485-490/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $470/mt FOB. At the same time, while indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $570-575/mt CFR, the same as last week, which translates to around $520/mt FOB, talk about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $560/mt CFR or €480/mt CFR for March shipment and the second quarter period has been circulating in the market. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $470-520/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range, given the higher offers reported in Vietnam, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.
In Turkey, local HRC prices have settled at $560-570/mt ex-works this week, indicating a $5/mt increase in offers from certain suppliers. Most of them are offering for delivery in late March, but some of them are offering for delivery in April. As regards exports, Turkish mills are still offering $540-550/mt FOB, with most indications at the lower end of the range. However, some bids from EU customers have been reported at $520/mt FOB base and lower.
Import offers from China for re-rolling grades have been at $500-510/mt CFR for March shipments. A deal for 50,000 mt of SAE1006 material has been closed at $497/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned. Ex-Malaysia HRC offers have been reported at $550-555/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range considered workable. Offers from Egypt have been reported at $565-570/mt CFR and around 15,000-20,000 mt are reported to have been sold via a trader within the mentioned range.
Ex-Russia HRC prices have been at $430-440/mt FOB Baltic region, while in the Black Sea region the prices differ from mill to mill. According to sources, the sanctioned supplier is offering at around $440-450/mt FOB Black Sea, with offers to Turkey reported at $470-475/mt CFR. A non-sanctioned Russian supplier, according to sources, has traded up to 30,000-35,000 mt of HRC for March shipment mainly at $500-510/mt CFR, up from around $495/mt CFR at the end December, which translates to around $470-480/mt FOB, sources estimate. In the MENA region, HRC offers from Russia have been reported at $470-485/mt CFR for sanctioned material. One Russian mill has managed to sell 30,000 mt at the upper end of this range.
In Egypt, local HRC prices have remained at EGP 35,000/mt or around $650/mt ex-works, while for export the domestic mill has finally returned with offers for March shipment following several weeks of absence. The new offer is at $550/mt FOB or at $565/mt CFR and above for the Turkish market. Import HRC offers to Egypt stand at $470-485/mt CFR from Russia depending on the seller, while Chinese offers are at $505-510/mt CFR. Ex-Turkey HRC offers are assessed at $560-575/mt CFR for March shipment.
In the UAE, import activity has continued at a slower pace, with modest buying interest seen for Indian material. However, as prices across origins have largely converged and some upward movement has been seen in Chinese offers, Emirati buyers have shown limited urgency to increase purchases, resulting in reduced trading activity. Nevertheless, to cover immediate stock needs, UAE buyers concluded a deal this week for around 20,000 mt of ex-India HRC at $490-495/mt CFR for end-of-February shipment, with Indian offers remaining unchanged week on week. At the same time, Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers have kept their March shipment HRC prices stable at $490-495/mt CFR and $495-500/mt CFR, respectively. By contrast, Chinese suppliers have raised their offers to $500-505/mt CFR for March shipment, although levels as low as $495/mt CFR have been heard for larger volumes, without confirmed deals so far. In addition, Russian material, despite being subject to sanctions, has been heard in the GCC market this week at around $475-485/mt CFR.
European hot rolled coil (HRC) market conditions have remained largely unchanged over the past week, with mills in the north reporting solid order books for near-term deliveries and limited availability for February shipments. At the same time, producers have continued to aim for higher prices for March and April and second quarter deliveries, citing limited availability. More specifically, offers from mills in northern Europe have been voiced not higher than €650/mt ex-works for February delivery, mainly the same as last week. At the same time, while a deal for March shipment HRC has been reported in Germany at €650/mt ex-works, the tradable price level has been estimated at €630-640/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, indicative prices from Italian mills have been estimated at €630-650/mt ex-works for February and March delivery, versus €620-640/mt ex-works for February delivery last week. However, workable local HRC prices in Italy have been assessed at €620-640/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt week on week. Despite the slight increase, trade activity has remained extremely slow. At the same time, activity in the import segment has stayed muted, with buyers maintaining a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty over demand and CBAM-related considerations. However, market sources have reported talk regarding a discounted deal for ex-India HRC this week. Import offers on CFR basis, excluding CBAM-related costs, have remained scarce in the region this week, with most suppliers providing only indicative numbers. In particular, ex-India HRC offers have been voiced at $570-575/mt CFR, which translates to around €490-493/mt CFR, the same as two weeks ago. However, according to sources, talk about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $560/mt CFR or €480/mt CFR for March shipment and the second quarter period has been circulating in the market. Offers for both ex-Algeria HRC and ex-Taiwan HRC have been voiced in southern Europe at $630/mt CFR, which translates to €542/mt CFR. Besides, offers for ex-Saudi Arabia HRC have been reported at €530/mt CFR, though some sources have also reported lower offers at around €510/mt CFR. Offers for ex-Turkey HRC on DDP basis, including CBAM, through traders have been voiced at €615/mt DDP, while offers for ex-Asia HRC have been voiced at €610-620/mt DDP through traders, the same as last week.