The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has shown a mixed but generally firmer trend in the first week of May, largely influenced by China’s return from its holiday and subsequent price increases. Ex-China HRC offers have moved up as mills and traders have pushed for higher levels, supported by stronger domestic sentiment, which in turn has lifted pricing expectations across several regions. In Vietnam, local producer Hoa Phat has responded to rising import prices by increasing its domestic HRC offers by $50/mt, although trading activity has remained cautious.
In India, HRC export prices have also edged up on the back of increased production costs, but buyers have resisted the hikes, resulting in deal levels lagging behind official offers. Turkey has seen a slight softening in domestic HRC prices despite the global uptrend, although the return of Chinese suppliers with higher offers has started to influence sentiment in the Turkish market. A similar pattern has been observed in the GCC, where higher offers have emerged following China’s return, but actual trading activity has remained limited due to cautious demand. Meanwhile, Algeria has increased its local HRC prices amid relatively stable demand conditions and has continued to be active in export markets. In contrast, the European market has remained under mild pressure, with participants adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the upcoming quota changes, while overall demand and import activity are still subdued.
Although some Chinese suppliers have yet to return after the Labor Day holiday, those already back in the market have moved quickly to announce revised offers at higher levels. Besides, by the end of the week more price hikes have been reported in the market supported by firmer sentiments in both the domestic spot market and HRC futures prices, which have helped strengthen the overall market mood.
More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $520-530/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $525/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt since the beginning of the week and up by $15/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced at around $510/mt FOB and above, versus $490-495/mt FOB last week. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been estimated at $505-515/mt FOB, up by $10-20/mt week on week and up by $5/mt on the higher end of the range since the beginning of this week. As of May 8, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,473/mt ($507/mt), increasing by RMB 48/mt ($7/mt) since April 30, but decreasing by 0.29 percent compared to the previous trading day, May 7.
Following a significant increase by over $30/mt in April, on May 4 Vietnam’s leading HRC producer, Hoa Phat Group, announced its new prices for June delivery, increasing them sharply by around $50/mt month on month. The decision to increase prices was largely due to foreign suppliers’ continuous attempts to significantly raise prices, even though demand in the Vietnamese market has remained weak. Specifically, Hoa Phat’s prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC have been announced at VND 15,710-15,740/kg ($596-598/mt) CIF, where the lower end of the range corresponds to prices in northern and central Vietnam, while the higher price is found in the south. Thus, the current price is around $50/mt higher than last month. As for the import segment, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has settled at $600-610/mt CFR, the same as last week, and compared to $530-540/mt CFR in early April. Offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been voiced at $615/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week but rising by at least $50/mt since the beginning of last month. However, talk about a deal for ex-India HRC signed at $585/mt CFR has been circulating in the market this week. Offers for ex-Indonesia SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at around $600/mt CFR for July shipment, while offers for ex-Japan coils have been estimated at $630/mt CFR, compared to $550/mt CFR in early April.
Ex-India HRC export sentiments have remained mixed in the past week, with a widening gap emerging between mills’ offers and actual transaction levels. While major producers have attempted to push prices higher on the back of rising production costs, buyers have largely resisted, keeping the flow of deals subdued. Market talk suggests that in key destinations, such as Vietnam, transactions may be concluded at discounts of around $30/mt below reported offer levels, raising questions about the sustainability of current pricing indications and highlighting growing pressure on sellers to realign expectations with the market reality.
More specifically, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in the Middle East have been estimated at around $550-560/mt FOB, up by $10-20/mt week on week. At least two large mills confirmed sales negotiations against enquiries from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Meanwhile, offers submitted in Europe have remained at $620-640/mt FOB, which translates to around $700-720/mt CFR. Besides, talk about a deal for ex-India HRC signed at €660/mt DDP Europe, including CBAM, has been circulating in the market this week. At the same time, while indicative offers for ex-India HRC to Vietnam have been reported at $610-615/mt CFR, equivalent to around $590/mt FOB, market insiders have reported a deal for around 20,000 mt signed at $585/mt CFR this week, which translates to around $555-560/mt FOB. However, this information has not been officially confirmed by the time of publication. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $550-640/mt FOB, up by $20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
In Turkey, domestic HRC prices have settled at $630-655/mt ex-works in realistic levels for July deliveries, down $5/mt over the past week, but higher official prices are also heard in offers. Demand is moderate, but not quite enough to push prices up further. As regards exports, most offers are at $635-645/mt FOB at the end of the week, for July shipments, though $630/mt FOB is considered workable for large volumes.
Import offers from China to Turkey have clearly increased after the holiday and by a larger amount than initially expected, up from $545-555/mt to $560-570/mt CFR for HRC from second-tier mills. Most offers are for late June and July shipments. The latest deals from Egypt have been reported at slightly below $645/mt CFR for over 10,000 mt for June shipment. No ex-Malaysia offers have been heard, while the Malaysian mill is expected to offer for July shipment. Russia is also out of the market and, according to some sources, its allocation for July shipment may be limited or even nonexistent, given the better situation in the local market in Russia.
In the GCC, the HRC market has started to show slightly firmer pricing after Chinese suppliers returned from their holiday period, though overall activity remains uneven across the region. While Saudi Arabia continues to show relatively better interest and some ongoing buying activity, the UAE market remains slower as transportation uncertainties linked to regional tensions continue to affect trading conditions. Chinese HRC offers to the UAE are now heard at $580-590/mt CFR for end-of-June and July shipment, compared to around $550/mt CFR for May-June shipment last week. For Saudi Arabia, Chinese offers remain at $610-615/mt CFR Jeddah for June shipment, while Indian suppliers are heard at $620-625/mt CFR for early-to-mid June shipment. On the domestic side, Hadeed is heard to be offering HRC at around $740/mt CPT for June shipment, with some transactions also rumored in the Saudi market, although no firm details have been confirmed so far.
In Algeria, local HRC prices have increased by DZD 2,000/mt ($12-13/mt) to DZD 101,500/mt ($645/mt) ex-works and may increase further in the near future. Algerian HRC export offers are at $700/mt FOB for June shipments, but negotiations especially with European customers are handled on an individual basis. Import HRC offers are mainly coming from China, at $580-590/mt CFR for base sizes and at around $630/mt CFR for thin specifications.
European HRC prices have shown slight downward adjustments in the northern European market over the past week, while remaining broadly stable in southern Europe. Overall, weak demand fundamentals, sufficient inventories and continued uncertainty regarding upcoming safeguard quota changes continue to weigh on market activity and limit price movement. In northern Europe, workable price levels have edged down to €680-700/mt ex-works for June-July delivery, compared to tradable levels of €700-710/mt ex-works reported last week. This indicates a modest softening in achievable prices, despite mills maintaining relatively firm offer intentions. Mills, however, are said to have no remaining material available for June and are attempting to consolidate July offers at €715-735/mt ex-works or around €730-750/mt delivered, broadly in line with previously reported target levels, though these higher prices have yet to gain traction in actual transactions. In Italy, official offers from mills have remained largely stable at around €705/mt ex-works (€720/mt delivered) for June-July delivery, compared to €705-710/mt ex-works for June reported last week. However, achievable transaction levels have declined slightly to €680-700/mt ex-works, down from around €700/mt ex-works previously, reflecting continued pressure from subdued demand and cautious buyer behavior. As for the import segment, trade activity has remained weak, with indicative offers standing at €600-650/mt CFR, the same as last week, while offers on DDP basis have been voiced at €680-720/mt levels, with buyers targeting lower workable levels of around €660-670/mt DDP base.