Global hot rolled coil (HRC) markets have been showing mixed trends this week, with prices generally stable to firmer across several regions, though trading activity has remained uneven as geopolitical developments and logistical disruptions have continued to create uncertainty. In Asia, ex-China HRC prices have remained stable to slightly firmer following the holiday period, while market participants have been cautiously optimistic about a gradual recovery in demand. However, the rebound has been facing external headwinds, including weak export demand and persistent uncertainty in global trade flows. In Vietnam, domestic HRC prices announced by Hoa Phat Group have remained unchanged as weak consumption has continued to weigh on the market. Indian HRC export prices have been largely stable as well, though many mills have paused new offers due to uncertainty surrounding shipments to the Gulf region. Ongoing disruptions and security concerns affecting shipping routes have made exporters reluctant to commit to new cargoes until logistics conditions become clearer. In Turkey, the HRC market has been strongly influenced by developments following the outbreak of war in the region. Turkish importers have been focusing on supplies from North Africa and the Black Sea, seeking alternative sources amid uncertainty in traditional trade flows. Domestic producers have expressed cautious optimism regarding pricing, though the lack of strong demand from end-users has continued to limit trading activity. The GCC market has also seen slower HRC trade. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties related to shipment schedules have created hesitation among both buyers and sellers, with many market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach until logistical risks ease. Meanwhile, in Europe, HRC prices have continued to rise, supported by ongoing restocking activity and tightening supply in some segments.
Although the Chinese New Year holiday has officially ended and consumption is expected to recover gradually, ex-China HRC prices have remained largely stable amid ongoing global uncertainties. The export market is closely assessing the impact of the war in the Gulf region, with freight rates rising significantly, particularly for shipments to sensitive destinations. Mills and traders have kept their export base prices broadly stable, although some have attempted to push slightly higher levels in their latest offers. More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, up by $2.5/mt week in week. However, offers from smaller private mills have remained at around $470-475/mt CFR, compared to $465-475/mt FOB last week. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $465-470/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week. As of March 6, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,230/mt ($468/mt), decreasing by RMB 15/mt ($2.2/mt) since February 27, while increasing by 0.31 percent compared to the previous trading day, March 5.
In Vietnam, leading HRC producer, Hoa Phat Group, has announced its new prices for April delivery, keeping them unchanged month on month in Vietnamese dong terms. However, due to currency fluctuations, prices indicate a slight downward adjustment of approximately $3-4/mt when converted into US dollars. The decision to keep prices stable was largely driven by the absence of low-priced, non-VAT HRC offers from China. At the same time, other foreign suppliers have neither shown attempts to significantly raise prices nor have they offered notable discounts, while demand in the Vietnamese market has remained extremely weak. Specifically, Hoa Phat’s prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC have been announced at VND 13,490-13,520/kg ($515-516/mt) CIF, where the lower end of the range corresponds to prices in northern and central Vietnam, while the higher price is found in the south. Thus, the current price is around $3-4/mt lower than last month. In the meantime, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has settled at $493-500/mt CFR, the same as last week, with the lower end of range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers.
Ex-India HRC prices have been kept relatively unchanged over the past week, but most mills have paused their submission of offers especially in the wake of the closure of trade corridors through the Middle East and rising risks and costs of logistics and insurance following the US-Israel attack on Iran. More specifically, indicative offers for ex-India HRC have been estimated at $490-500/mt FOB for the Middle East, down by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. However, according to sources, not only have most mills halted submission of offers, but FOB-based rates have been rendered largely irrelevant by uncertainties surrounding shipping lines, freight, insurance and war risk premiums. In the meantime, ex-India HRC offers to Europe have remained rare, with indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe reported at $620-625/mt CFR, which translates to around $565-570/mt FOB, the same as last week. Furthermore, offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC in Vietnam have been heard at $493-495/mt CFR, the same as last week or at around $475/mt FOB, while bids have been reported at around $490/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $475-570/mt FOB, the same as last week.
In Turkey, domestic HRC prices from most mils have settled at $590-610/mt ex-works, while one producer is still offering at $585/mt ex-works. As regards exports, the FOB price levels are mainly at $590-610/mt FOB, while $575-585/mt FOB levels are considered achievable by buyers. demand remains moderate with some sales closed to Europe and domestically, but in general the $5-10/mt price increase is attributed to concerns regarding the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the consequent rise in international freight rates. Import offers from China are at $505-515/mt CFR for Q195 grade, while a deal for a full cargo has been reported in the market but with no details reported yet. Egypt’s workable prices in Turkey stand at $590-600/mt CFR this week for April-May shipments, while Malaysia is expected to return next week with offers for May shipment. Russia was also in the market with around 25,000-30,000 mt sold at $510-520/mt CFR and its latest intention is to increase offers by a minimum of $10/mt.
In the GCC, HRC import activity has largely stalled this week as escalating regional tensions and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created significant uncertainty across supply chains, leaving shipment routes, freight levels and delivery timelines unclear and keeping buyers in a wait-and-see position. Meanwhile, although no fresh offers have been heard this week, previous Chinese SS400 indications for March and April shipment were reported at $490-500/mt CFR UAE, broadly stable week on week, in line with Chinese FOB-based levels at $465-485/mt. Similarly, no new offers have been reported from Indian suppliers, whose most recent indications were heard at $510-525/mt CFR UAE for March shipment. Japanese suppliers have also remained absent from the market following last week’s rumors of offers at around $520-525/mt CFR UAE. Russian offers have remained unchanged at $470-480/mt CFR UAE for March and April shipments.
European domestic hot rolled coil prices have continued to move upward this week, supported by improving trading activity and gradual restocking across the region. Mills in northern Europe have maintained firm offers while pushing for further increases, amid tightening spot availability and persistent uncertainty surrounding imports. At the same time, the war in the Middle East has added volatility to the energy and freight markets, with market participants not ruling out further support for domestic HRC prices due to increasing production and import costs in the coming weeks. Most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for May delivery, have been estimated at €685-705/mt ex-works, up by €5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week, while in Italy offers from mills are estimated at €685/mt ex-works for April delivery, up by €5/mt week on week, and at around €700/mt ex-works for delivery in May, the same as last week. At the same time, the tradable price levels in the north of Europe have settled at €670-700/mt ex-works, versus €650-660/mt ex-works last week, while in Italy the tradable price levels are at €670-680/mt ex-works, up by €10-20/mt week on week. In the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have remained at €525-565/mt CFR, the same as last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers. Meanwhile, HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been mainly voiced at €630-660/mt, compared to €630-670/mt DDP last week.