This week, global hot rolled coil (HRC) markets have reflected cautious and uneven sentiments. Ex-China HRC prices have edged up slightly, supported by stronger futures, but export trading has remained muted due to lingering market uncertainty. In Vietnam, import prices have fluctuated, showing a slight upward bias, though local producer Formosa Ha Tinh re-entered the market with lower official prices, reflecting ongoing downward pressure. India’s HRC export prices have remained stable, but trading activity has been minimal as mills prioritized domestic sales over competing aggressively in export markets. In contrast, Turkey’s market has showed a mildly optimistic tone, driven by firmer Chinese offers. In the GCC, some restocking interest has been noted, but buyers have largely disregarded China’s price increases. Meanwhile, the European market has remained subdued, with soft demand and a wide gap between buyer caution and sellers’ resilience, keeping spot activity slow and longer-term deals on hold.
This week, ex-China HRC prices have posted a slight increase, supported by stronger domestic prices and rising HRC futures in China, which lifted overall market sentiments. Despite the uptick, export activity has remained muted as ongoing uncertainty has kept both traders and overseas buyers on the sidelines. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from major Chinese mills have stood at $465–485/mt FOB, with most market participants estimating deal prices at $465–470/mt FOB. Smaller mills quoted slightly lower levels at $458–465/mt FOB, up $3–5/mt from last week. Tradable prices for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC have risen by $5/mt week on week and are now at $455–465/mt FOB. Offers for Q235 HRC 2,000 mm to Vietnam have held steady at $475–480/mt CFR, up $10/mt from late last week. In the Middle East, offers have stayed flat at $490–495/mt CFR, although a deal was concluded at $480/mt CFR Oman. Meanwhile, ex-Turkey Q195 HRC offers have remained stable at $485–490/mt CFR. While prices have edged up, the market continues to face a cautious outlook with limited deals being done.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained stable this past week, but export activity nearly came to a halt due to weak demand and stiff competition from Chinese suppliers, particularly in the Middle East. European buyers have also been largely inactive, with distributors reported to be well-stocked and not pursuing new import deals. Although most Indian mills have held back from making formal export offers, indicative prices have been heard at $520–530/mt FOB for the Middle East and at $580–590/mt FOB for Europe. However, these levels saw little to no interest, as buyers’ bids in key markets dropped to below $500/mt FOB, with some dipping as low as $450/mt FOB. The slowdown in trade was also attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, as the conflict between India and Pakistan prompted a temporary pause in overseas sales. Even after a ceasefire restored some market calm, Indian mills have showed little interest in aggressive export pricing, preferring to focus on stronger-margin domestic sales. With China continuing to dominate Asian HRC markets, Indian mills are expected to rely on their home market strength in the short to medium term.
Vietnam’s import HRC market has seen fluctuating offers in the past week. Some Chinese sellers lowered prices early in the week, while others raised them, supported by improved sentiment after the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs. Ex-China Q235 HRC (2,000 mm, no AD duty) was offered at $475/mt CFR, up $5/mt from last week, with some offers at $480/mt CFR. Q355 HRC has been quoted at $490/mt CFR. However, demand for SAE1006 has remained weak due to duties, despite offers inching up to $490–495/mt CFR. Other Asian suppliers have gained ground: Indonesian SAE1006 stands at $510–515/mt CFR, and Japanese offers have reached up to $515/mt CFR. As a result, the reference price for SAE1006 HRC has risen to $490–510/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has moved up by $5/mt to $490–510/mt CFR.
In the meantime, after a long pause, Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) has resumed official HRC pricing, marking a drop from April’s unofficial levels. On May 12, FHS set prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC at $508/mt CIF Haiphong for orders over 20,000 mt, while smaller volumes saw tiered pricing up to $518/mt CIF. These June-July shipment offers reflect a $10/mt decrease from April and point to weaker sentiment in Vietnam’s import market, despite stable regional offers and some recovery in China’s domestic market.
In Turkey, local HRC suppliers have been attempting to return to slightly higher price levels, citing firmer scrap prices and the fact that June production sales are almost finished, and so mills are not under much pressure. In addition, although domestic HRC demand in Turkey is on the low side, it still goes mainly to local mills, taking into account the long lead times for Asian imports and the accompanying risks. Instead, Russia, being a nearby source, was selling within $470-495/mt CFR depending on the mill, for June production. The current offers for the sanctioned ex-Russia material are at $472-485/mt CFR. Chinese offers have increased from $485/mt CFR to $490-495/mt CFR, with no deals reported just yet. Japanese offers for July shipments are at $520/mt CFR, while Egypt sold a small cargo at $560/mt CFR Turkey. Local HRC prices in Turkey are indicatively at $570-575/mt and up to $580/mt ex-works, but the buyers believe $560-565/mt ex-works levels from some of the mills are still quite possible. Export offers from Turkey are mainly at $540-560/mt FOB depending on the region, while demand has been relatively quiet these days.
Russian mills remain relatively active in HRC exports, even though the export price is much lower than the domestic price due to the unfavorable exchange rate. The current offers for sanctioned material are at $472-485/mt CFR to Turkey, the MENA region and India, in line with the sales closed before the May holidays for around 40,000 mt of June production in total. Sales of non-sanctioned Russian HRC to Turkey have been reported at $490-495/mt and up to $500/mt CFR in the previous round of sales, while the new round will start shortly. In the local market in Russia, the official price for HRC is at RUB 62,000/mt or $640/mt CPT based on $1 = RUB 80.71.
North African mills are also present in the export market, particularly Egypt. The Egyptian mill has closed a deal for a HRC cargo of less than 10,000 mt to Turkey at around $545-550/mt FOB, while a deal to Latin America for a decent volume was done at $530/mt FOB. In addition, a cargo has been traded recently to the UK at $550/mt FOB. Algerian HRC producer, according to sources, is in the market with $570/mt FOB base offers for June-July production.
In the GCC, since HRC prices from Chinese suppliers have begun to rise, GCC purchasers have not engaged in any trading activity during the week. Meanwhile, last week Omani purchasers bought some lots from China at lower prices. According to the deal, China sold 15,000 mt of HRC to Oman at $480/mt CFR. However, current offers from China to the GCC are at around $490-500/mt CFR for July shipment, up from $490-495/mt CFR before. According to reports, despite increased efforts, certain Chinese suppliers continue to provide the previous reduced levels of $480-485/mt CFR. In contrast, Japanese suppliers are silent on new offers since trade is limited in the GCC. Previously, offers were at around $495-500/mt CFR for shipping in July. On the other hand, Indian suppliers have chosen to remain at higher levels to the GCC at $550/mt CFR, with not much interest from buyers, leading Indian suppliers to focus on their domestic market.
The European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained subdued, with weak demand and cautious sentiment keeping activity low. Buyers are holding back, focusing on short-term needs, while sellers remain slightly more optimistic despite falling sales volumes. In northern Europe, domestic HRC offers for July delivery have dropped to €660–680/mt ex-works, down from €670–700/mt last week. In Italy, offers have slipped to €620/mt ex-works, while tradable levels have declined to €600–620/mt ex-works. Import offers were estimated at €520–570/mt CFR, with ex-Indonesia offers at €515-520/mt and ex-Vietnam offers at €540/mt CFR. Indian offers have remained stable at €570–575/mt CFR. Rare ex-China offers have been heard at around €555/mt CFR duty paid, while ex-Turkey offers have ranged at €545–570/mt CFR. Overall, the market remains hesitant, with long-term contracting still on hold.