This week started with a fall in ex-China HRC prices due to the decline in HRC futures prices as China’s latest stimulus package has not been considered strong enough to support a positive market mood. Thus, other markets have been affected by the price drop in China, though in Vietnam local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel’s new HRC offers remained relatively stable. In Turkey, however, domestic HRC prices have once again been affected by the more aggressive import prices from China, while Emirati buyers have delayed HRC purchases as ex-China offers softened. Ex-India HRC prices have remained stable amid slow demand in the main trade destinations, though some sales have been reported in southern Europe, where prices from local mills have remained stable.
HRC offers from big Chinese mills and local traders have shown some negative bias affected by the declines in local and futures prices in China, mainly since the market's response to the government's new stimulus measures announced last Friday has been unfavourable, as expectations were once again overly optimistic with the reality falling short. Offers from big mills for boron-added SS400 HRC have settled at $500-510/mt FOB for December shipment, with a midpoint at $505/mt FOB, down by $12.5/mt as compared to offers heard at the beginning of last week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been estimated at $490-500/mt FOB, against $500-510/mt FOB last week. Furthermore, the tradable prices for SS400/Q235 HRC have been estimated at $482-490/mt FOB, versus $500-510/mt FOB last week. At the same time, according to sources, the Chinese market is entering its slower, winter phase, with both demand and supply weakening, while most buyers find it difficult to see a clear price direction as all are very cautious and are refraining from purchases.
Although import HRC prices have indicated new declines this week, Vietnamese steel producer Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) has announced its new local HRC prices for December and January shipments mostly at the same levels as in September or only slightly lower for large-volume orders. FHS’ prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC in the local market have settled at $534-548/mt CIF, depending on the size of the order. The new prices are viewed by most local buyers as overpriced given the recent fall in ex-China HRC offers, but they have changed market sentiment slightly, giving hope for some recovery in import prices also this month. Offers for ex-China Q235/SS400 HRC in Vietnam have been heard at $495-500/mt CFR for December shipment, versus $510-515/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC from traders have been assessed at $515-520/mt CFR, down by $10/mt week on week, while offers from mills have been heard at $520-525/mt CFR. Thus, SteelOrbis’ reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $520/mt CFR, against $525-530/mt CFR last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained relatively stable at $520-545/mt FOB but only small-volume trades have been successful at the lower end of the price range. Besides, trade conditions remain rather tough in the main trade destinations given tighter competition with Chinese HRC suppliers in the Middle East and trade investigations in the EU. This week, most Indian offers have been voiced at $555-560/mt CFR UAE, though most buyers’ bids have been heard at below $550/mt CFR due to tighter competition with Chinese suppliers, whose offers have been at least $20/mt lower. In the meantime, most ex-India HRC offers have been heard at around $595/mt CFR Europe, mainly the same as last week. However, talk about deals for ex-India HRC at lower levels has been circulating in the market this week. Although most European buyers have been refraining from new purchases from India to avoid potential retrospective dumping duty, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed with an Italian mill at $590/mt CFR or around €560/mt CFR, according to sources.
Although sentiments are rather positive in the EU hot rolled coil (HRC) market, most European producers have maintained their offers unchanged for December and January deliveries, while the tradable level has indicated only a slight upward correction over the past week. In particular, HRC offers prices in the EU for January deliveries have been voiced at €570-600/mt ex-works, the same as last week, with the Italian mills still targeting €570-580/mt ex-works, while in northern Europe domestic HRC prices have been heard at €600/mt ex-works from mills, the same as last week. The tradable level in Europe for December delivery coils has been voiced at €550-570/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. In the meantime, although demand for import HRC has remained extremely limited in Europe due to competitive local prices coupled with safeguard and antidumping-related risks, import HRC prices have showed some increases in Europe this week, reaching €555-620/mt CFR, depending on the origin, up by €5-10/mt week on week. Most offers for ex-Asia HRC in Italy have been estimated at €555-590/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers for ex-Indonesia HRC at €555/mt CFR Italy and €560/mt CFR Spain “for small and medium-sized lots”. Besides, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed with an Italian mill at $590/mt CFR or around €560/mt CFR, according to sources. Meanwhile, most offers for ex-India HRC have been reported at €570-580/mt CFR southern Europe, mainly the same as last week.
Turkish HRC prices have slipped slightly over the past week due to slow demand and the generally negative mood in the market, but also owing to the further slump seen in Chinese prices. Import HRC offers have decreased from $537-540/mt CFR last week to $525-530/mt CFR this Friday. Moreover, the lowest prices during the week were recorded at $522-525/mt CFR, but still no deals have been reported. Egyptian HRC has been available in Turkey at $600-610/mt CFR, while Russian offers have been reported at $505/mt CFR for sanctioned material and at $540/mt CFR for non-sanctioned material. In the domestic market in Turkey, the realistic price levels are at $600-615/mt ex-works base, down from $607-620/mt ex-works earlier. Some sources believe prices below $600/mt ex-works should be possible from some mills for purchases of 20,000-30,000 mt lots. As regards exports, Turkish mills are offering at $570-590/mt FOB officially, with $560/mt FOB considered achievable, although buyers’ bids are even lower than that.
In the UAE, imports have slowed down this week as offers have softened due to the influence of Chinese pricing shifts. According to reports, SS400 grade HRC offers from China to the UAE for December shipment have dropped by $5/mt week on week to $525-535/mt CFR. However, UAE-based market participants claim that Chinese suppliers have been providing significantly lower prices at $510-515/mt CFR only for larger tonnages. Similar to the downward swing in Chinese prices, Indian prices have also softened, with offers at $555-560/mt CFR, down from $560-570/mt CFR last week. Meanwhile, Japanese and South Korean suppliers are still not offering to the GCC due to the slow trade in the region.