Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) export prices have inched up slightly this week, with both mills and traders raising offers amid early signs of recovery in the domestic market. Higher HRC futures and a modest rebound in domestic spot prices have lifted sentiments somewhat, but most overseas buyers remain cautious. Market participants are watching closely to see whether the upward trend can be sustained before reviving purchases, particularly ahead of the next pricing moves from Chinese mills.
Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, mainly for December shipment, up by $10/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt CFR, compared to $460-465/mt CFR last week.
At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $470/mt FOB and above, versus $460-465/mt FOB last week, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been still voiced at as low as $450-455/mt FOB, up by $10/mt week on week.
In particular, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235/SS400 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $488/mt CFR, up by $8/mt week on week and up by $10/mt since yesterday.
Meanwhile, Chinese offers to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $500/mt CFR UAE, compared to $490-495/mt CFR last week, while two big Chinese mills have been reportedly offering their coils at $515-520/mt CFR UAE this week, according to sources.
Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have been estimated at $500/mt CFR from Chinese suppliers with VAT, up by $10/mt week on week. However, offers from non-VAT Chinese sellers have been estimated at around $485/mt CFR and above level, comparted to $475/mt CFR last week.
In the meantime, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have moved up compared to the previous week amid the increasing HRC futures prices. Domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,360-3,460/mt ($473-487/mt) ex-warehouse on October 28, with the average price level RMB 57/mt ($8.0/mt) higher compared to that recorded on October 21, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
During the given week, HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have moved on an uptrend, exerting a positive impact on prices in spot market. The hike of coke prices has been implemented on October 27, providing certain support to HRC prices from cost side. However, the relatively high inventories of HRC and the weak demand from downstream users will weaken the support to prices, which might curb the rising trend.
As of October 28, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,305/mt ($453/mt), increasing by RMB 86/mt ($12.1/mt) or 2.7 percent since October 21, while increasing by 0.85 percent compared to the previous trading day, October 27.
| Product | Spec | Quality | City | Origin | Price（RMB/mt） | W-o-w change |
| HRC | 5.75mm*1500*C | Q235B/SS400 | Shanghai | Angang | 3,460 | +50 |
| Tianjin | Baotou Steel | 3,360 | +50 | |||
| Lecong | Liuzhou Steel | 3,430 | +70 | |||
| Avg | 3,417 | +57 | ||||
| HRC | 2.75mm*1250*C | Q235B | Shanghai | Angang | 3,570 | +50 |
| Tianjin | Baotou Steel | 3,420 | +50 | |||
| Lecong | Angang | 3,510 | +70 | |||
| Avg | 3,500 | +57 |
$1 = RMB 7.0856