The global HRC market has remained under pressure this week, with lower bids, falling futures prices and subdued demand weighing on prices across key regions, Ex-China prices have declined further amid drops in HRC futures prices and because buyers pushed for discounts. Ex-India HRC has remained uncompetitive in the Middle East and has continued to slide in Europe without boosting demand. In Vietnam and Pakistan, deal prices for imported HRC have softened in line with weaker Chinese offers. UAE buyers have continued to show a strong preference for competitively priced ex-China HRC, rejecting higher-priced alternatives. Meanwhile, Turkish HRC mills have attempted to maintain offer levels, trying to avoid discounts despite growing pressure from lower-priced Chinese material in the region.
Chinese HRC suppliers have faced downward pressure as weak customer bids and falling futures prices prompted several mills and traders to lower their offers. Although major Chinese mills have tried to hold prices stable, actual deals were concluded with discounts. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC have ranged at $460-480/mt FOB, while smaller Chinese mills have offered HRC at as low as $445-450/mt FOB, and bids in key markets such as Vietnam and Turkey have continued to slide. As a result, deals have largely been concluded at $445/mt FOB and even lower. Notably, a large ex-China HRC deal for around 45,000 mt was reported at $470/mt CFR, highlighting buyers' preference for attractively-priced cargoes. As of May 30, HRC futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,076/mt ($427/mt), decreasing by RMB 113/mt ($16/mt) or 3.5 percent since May 23, while down 0.81 percent compared to the previous trading day, May 29.
Ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have remained largely unchanged at $520/mt FOB, but have continued to lag behind more competitive pricing from other Asian suppliers like China and Japan. Meanwhile, Indian offers in the European market have declined steadily for another week to $570/mt FOB, as trading activity has remained muted amid weak demand and ongoing pressure from low-priced bids and trade-related restrictions, especially quota limitations. So far, there have been no confirmed deals or negotiations for July deliveries in any key markets. Once such discussions emerge, they are expected to provide a clearer direction on immediate price trends. More activity is anticipated in the coming weeks, which could prompt sellers to reassess their pricing strategies. However, sellers are unlikely to gain pricing power in the export market until there is a noticeable tightening in ex-China supply.
Import HRC prices in Vietnam have softened further this week, pressured by lower offers from major Asian suppliers, particularly China, amid continued volatility in Chinese futures. By Friday, May 30, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC have fallen to $458-462/mt CFR, against $460-465/mt CFR at the beginning of the week, and down from last week’s $468-470/mt CFR. Ex-China Q195 HRC has been offered at $447–450/mt CFR, with deals totalling at least 20,000 mt reported at $450-453/mt CFR. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have dropped to $480/mt CFR, but demand has remained muted due to antidumping duties. Among other suppliers, Indonesian SAE1006 HRC has been offered at $505/mt CFR for August shipment, down from $510-515/mt CFR last week. Ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC has been heard at $500-505/mt CFR, though most bids have remained at $490-495/mt CFR, with limited deals concluded at these levels. As a result, SteelOrbis has adjusted its reference price for import SAE1006 HRC to $480-495/mt CFR, down from $490-495/mt CFR last week.
In Turkey, local, import and export HRC prices have all declined this week amid low trading activity and the lack of bright expectations for demand. China has dropped offers from $475-482/mt CFR to $467-475/mt CFR by Friday and, according to sources, a 45,000 mt cargo has been sold from China at $470/mt CFR. The latest offers from Egypt and Malaysia stood at $560/mt and $550/mt CFR, with some deals closed since these are duty-free origins. Local prices in Turkey have decreased by $10/mt over the past week to $550-565/mt ex-works, with some deals closed at the lower end of the range. Export offers from Turkey are now at $540-550/mt FOB officially, with $530-535/mt FOB levels possible for complicated breakdowns of cargoes.
In the UAE, despite the slowdown in domestic demand due to the approaching holiday, Emirati tube makers in need of stock have remained active in importing and purchasing some lots from China. As a result, China recently sold 30,000-35,000 mt of HRC to UAE tube producers at $477/mt CFR for July shipment. Following this deal, SS400 grade HRC offers from China have slightly declined as trading activity has slowed and futures prices have softened. Current offers are now at $480-490/mt CFR, down from the previous levels of $490-495/mt CFR. Additionally, SAE1006 grade HRC from China has been heard at around $500/mt CFR UAE. In contrast, Japanese and Indian suppliers have remained quiet regarding new offers, keeping last week’s levels unchanged at $505-510/mt CFR and $540–550/mt CFR, respectively, with no deals reported.
Trading activity in the European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained sluggish this week, with prices holding mostly steady or softening slightly in isolated offers. Buyers remain cautious due to market uncertainty and interest in large-volume purchases remains low. Producers are pushing to secure orders before the seasonal summer slowdown, but weak demand continues to leave order books under pressure. Northern European HRC offers for July delivery have been largely stable at €635-645/mt ex-works, though tradable values were estimated slightly lower at €620-640/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, in Italy, most offers from mills have been estimated at €620/mt ex-works, the same as last week. However, anticipated workable prices have dropped to €590-600/mt ex-works, against €600-605/mt ex-works last week. Import HRC activity in Europe has remained limited this week, with buyers hesitant to commit amid weak demand and ongoing uncertainty. Most import offers have settled at €520-570/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, down by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.