This week’s global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been marked by cautious sentiment and limited trade, with most regions seeing only marginal price movements. Ex-China HRC prices have edged up, supported by improved futures market sentiment, but gains have remained modest as buyers are still cautious. In Vietnam, purchasing interest has continued to weaken, with import prices fluctuating only within a narrow range. Ex-India HRC prices have remained stable, yet trading activity has largely stalled as buyers pushed for discounts and suppliers have resisted lower levels. In the Gulf region, UAE buyers stayed on the sidelines following recent purchases, while concerns over China’s logistics situation further dampened the appetite for fresh bookings. Turkish flat steel prices have remained unchanged for the third consecutive week amid muted trading and a lack of clear market direction. Meanwhile, in Europe, stable HRC offers contrast sharply with persistently weak import activity, with the market grappling with ongoing CBAM compliance challenges and rising uncertainty following the leak of provisional CBAM benchmark values.
Chinese HRC export prices from both mills and traders remained relatively stable or showed only a slight upward bias at the beginning of the week. At the same time, while sentiment has improved slightly, actual transaction levels have shown limited movement as the market continues to digest recent gains. Persistent factors such as environmental inspections, ongoing mill maintenance and seasonally weak demand are keeping export spot prices largely in a holding pattern. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $460-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, for December shipment, up by $2.5/mt over the past week.
Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $460-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, for December shipment, up by $2.5/mt over the past week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $450-460/mt CFR, the same as last week. Besides, offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $455-460/mt CFR, compared to $450-460/mt CFR last week, according to sources offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at $445-450/mt FOB, compared to $440-445/mt FOB last week. As of November 20, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing RMB 3,267/mt ($460/mt), increasing by RMB 13/mt ($1.8/mt) since November 13, while decreasing by 0.55 percent compared to the previous trading day, November 19.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has remained weak this week, while re-rolling grade offers from most foreign suppliers have been mostly stable. Offers from Chinese suppliers for pipe-making HRC have also been stable overall, though a few showed a slight increase in line with a modest rebound in China’s HRC futures prices. In particular, import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $475/mt CFR, compared to deal prices at $468/mt CFR last week and offers at $470-472/mt CFR. Meanwhile, offers for SAE1006 HRC from most foreign suppliers have remained relatively stable over the past week, with no fresh deals reported so far. Offers for SAE1006 HRC from India have been voiced at around $495-500/mt CFR for late December shipment. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia 3 mm SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been heard at $493/mt CFR for 20,000 mt for February shipment, while offers for bigger orders or around 30,000 mt have settled at $491/mt CFR for February shipment. Offers for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $510-515/mt CFR for January shipment. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $491-500/mt CFR, down by $ 4/mt on the lower end of the range given discounted prices for ex-Indonesia HRC for big orders.
In India, HRC export prices have remained largely stable over the past week, but trade activity has been muted amid a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Ex-India HRC prices have been maintained at $480-490/mt FOB in offers submitted in the Middle East, while buyers have continued to seek additional discounts. Most offers for ex-India HRC in the UAE have been voiced at $505-510/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, while buyers’ bids have been reported at $495/mt CFR and lower. Meanwhile, ex-India offers to Europe have been estimated at $520/mt FOB and above, compared to $500-520/mt FOB last week, which translates to around $570-575/mt CFR southern Europe. Besides, according to sources, ex-India HRC offers have also been reported in the EU at €560-580/mt DDP, including CBAM costs. Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $495-500/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $480-520/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
In the UAE, Emirati buyers remained cautious early in the week as rising Chinese futures prices led some Chinese mills to test higher offer price levels. However, activity picked up toward the end of the week, especially for Chinese material, as lower-priced offers continued to appear. Despite these attractive levels, market players note that persistent logistical issues with Chinese suppliers are still causing hesitation among many buyers. Reports indicate that China sold some lots of SS400 HRC at $475-485/mt CFR to the UAE, as well as around 4,000 mt of cold rolled coil at $540/mt CFR, both for December shipment. Current Chinese offers for SS400 HRC stand at $480-495/mt CFR for December shipment. Meanwhile, Indian mills, having recently concluded sales at $505-510/mt CFR, are keeping their December offers unchanged. Japanese suppliers also remain at $495-500/mt CFR for December, while their January indications of $515-520/mt CFR are considered unrealistic under current conditions. Additionally, market sources report that South Korea sold small HRC lots to the UAE at around $505/mt CFR, although this deal has not been confirmed by the time of publication.
Turkey’s local HRC prices have remained stable at $535-545/mt ex-works base, while export offers have softened by $5/mt on the upper end to $525-535/mt FOB. Import offers from China have been fluctuating this week in the range of $478-485/mt CFR for January shipments. Sources reported two cargoes being booked at $472-474/mt CFR, but most buyers have denied the purchase, SteelOrbis has learned.
European HRC producers have held their January delivery offer prices steady at elevated levels this week. More specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week, while in Italy mills have been targeting €620-630/mt for January delivery. However, according to sources, the tradable price levels for January delivery coils in the north have been estimated at €600-620/mt ex-works for mainly January delivery, while the tradable price level for January delivery in Italy is still estimated at €590-600/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, import activity has continued to be weak, hindered by ongoing CBAM-related compliance issues and quota constraints, while indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €475-520/mt CFR, compared to €470-520/mt CFR last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to offers for ex-Indonesia, ex-Malaysia and ex-India HRC at €475-490/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. All prices exclude CBAM costs. Furthermore, market insiders have continued to report HRC import offers from different global suppliers coming to the region including CBAM costs on DDP basis at €560-600/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €20/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. In the meantime, a leaked document released this week revealed the European Commission’s long-anticipated draft CBAM benchmark values, providing EU importers with the critical data needed to assess steel import costs from January 1, 2026. However, market sources claim that the numbers are provisional and may be adjusted, with most industry voices already questioning them.