Global hot rolled coil (HRC) markets has showed mixed trends this week, with prices edging higher in several regions but with trading activity remaining limited due to weak demand and growing logistical uncertainty linked to the escalating war in the Middle East. In Asia, Chinese HRC export prices have moved slightly higher, supported by firmer domestic spot prices and stronger futures prices. However, trading activity has remained subdued as uncertainty over freight routes and insurance costs has discouraged most buyers from concluding deals. The situation has been further complicated by disruptions to Gulf trade flows after the outbreak of the war, which has created additional challenges for Chinese exporters targeting the Middle East. Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel has raised its domestic HRC offers slightly, reflecting modest cost pressures, although overall demand in the Vietnamese market has remained soft. Indian HRC export prices have remained largely stable during the week, but mills have paused fresh offers as they assess rapidly changing freight and insurance costs for shipments to key markets, particularly in the Middle East. Across the GCC region, the HRC market has been largely inactive, with no fresh offers reported, while, in North Africa, HRC prices have moved higher in some markets, but exporters have remained cautious and have largely refrained from active trading while waiting for greater clarity on logistics and supply routes. Russian HRC export prices have increased by $5-10/mt for shipments to Turkey and the wider MENA region, supported by firmer prices in Asia and additional risks associated with longer shipping routes. In Europe, HRC prices have edged higher, although overall market activity has remained weak due to subdued demand, while imports remain extremely limited, further constraining trading volumes across the region.
Ex-China HRC prices have increased over the past week, supported by firmer sentiment in the domestic market and higher offers from major Chinese mills, though trading activity has remained limited in some destinations due to rising freight costs and geopolitical uncertainties. In particular, export prices have been pushed up amid improving domestic demand, stronger futures prices and price hikes announced by leading producers, while escalating tensions in the Middle East and the resulting surge in freight rates have added further pressure to export quotations and disrupted offer activity to certain regions. More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $480-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $485/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt week on week and up by $5/mt since the end of last week. However, offers from smaller private mills have remained at around $475-480/mt CFR, compared to $470-475/mt FOB last week. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $475-490/mt FOB, versus $465-470/mt FOB last week. Chinese Q195 HRC offers through traders to Turkey have been estimated at $530-545/mt CFR, versus $510/mt CFR for April shipment last week, which translates to around $480-490/mt FOB, given that the freight rates have increased significantly this week due to the surge in oil prices and the escalation of the war in the Middle East. In particular, freight for steel products in large lots of 50,000 mt from China to Turkey is estimated by different sources polled by SteelOrbis to be in a range from $50-55/mt to $60/mt, which is up from $40-45/mt seen last week and pre-war rates of $35-37/mt. Offers for ex-China SS400 HRC in Egypt have been voiced at $520-540/mt CFR, according to sources. In the meantime, most Chinese mills are reported to have stopped issuing new export offers to Gulf buyers as freight conditions and insurance coverage for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remain unclear. As of March 13, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,256/mt ($477.5/mt), increasing by RMB 65/mt ($9.5/mt) since March 6, while increasing by 0.52 percent compared to the previous trading day, March 12.
This week, major Vietnamese HRC producer Formosa Ha Tinh has announced its new prices for April and May delivery, increasing them slightly month on month by around $6/mt. More specifically, after the announcement at the beginning of last week by Hoa Phat Group of new local HRC offers at unchanged levels, this week FHS has also announced its new prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC, increasing them by $6/mt to $518/mt CIF for orders for a minimum of 2,000 mt. For 5,000-10,000 mt volumes, the price has settled at $512-514/mt CIF, and at $508-510/mt CIF for 10,000-20,000 mt orders. At the same time, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has settled at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week, up by $2/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Ex-India HRC prices have been kept mainly stable over the past week, but most large mills have paused the submission of offers as the absence of guidance on freight and insurance costs has complicated the drawing up of sales contracts and has increased the risks to receipt of payments, against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East. While ex-India HRC indicative prices have remained stable at $490-500/mt FOB for the Middle East, no mills are reported to have submitted offers over the past weeks. In the meantime, while indicative offers in Europe have remained at around $620-625/mt CFR or around $570/mt FOB, the same as last week, demand in the region remains on the softer side and is still very price-sensitive. Furthermore, offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC in Vietnam have been heard at $500-505/mt CFR, up by $5-10/mt week on week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $480-570/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. The lower end corresponds to occasional offers heard in Vietnam, though, amid the current uncertainty regarding freight rates, this reference price largely reflects an indicative level.
In Turkey, domestic HRC climbed to $605-620/mt and up to $625/mt ex-works, up from $590-620/mt ex-works seen earlier this week, with the cargoes for April-May deliveries. Export offers have also mainly increased to above $600/mt FOB. Most market players report a range of $600-610/mt FOB, while earlier $585-595/mt FOB was still reachable. The demand has not generally shown much improvement locally and abroad, and the price increase is mainly attributed to the expectations and consequences related to the ongoing war in the Middle East. In fact, due to higher freight rates, the offers from Asia have risen quite significantly - to $530-545/mt CFR from China and up to $600/mt CFR expected from Malaysia, while before the conflict China stood at $500-510/mt CFR. The latest HRC prices from Egypt have been at $600-610/mt CFR for May shipments, up from earlier deals at $590-600/mt CFR. Ex-Russia HRC offers are mainly at $490-495/mt CFR for sanctioned material and at $530-540/mt CFR for non-sanctioned material. Sources report that some decent lots were sold at around $535/mt CFR and slightly above, while some say levels $5/mt lower were also workable earlier this week.
Considering the global market uptrend resulting from higher international freight rates and supply issues due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, Russian suppliers are among those benefitting. One of the mills, according to sources, has managed to sell a total of 60,000 mt of May shipment HRC at $490-495/mt CFR Middle East, mainly North Africa. The workable prices in the GCC for sanctioned Russian material were reported at $505/mt CFR, but it is not acceptable to the supplier due to the recent $15-20/mt increase in freight. The mill’s FOB price is evaluated at $435-440/mt in the Baltic region, up $5-10/mt from the previous sales. Another sanctioned Russian HRC producer has increased its prices by $5/mt to $465/mt FOB Black Sea, which is around $490-495/mt CFR Turkey and MENA markets. No fresh sizeable sales have been reported. The non-sanctioned HRC producer from Russia is standing at $510/mt FOB Black Sea this week, up by $10-20/mt since its previous sales. The mill has been targeting $530-540/mt CFR Turkey this week for May shipments, and, according to sources, has traded decent lots within this range, as was stated above.
In North Africa, the export prices from Egypt, particularly in the latest indications for the Turkish market, stood at $585-590/mt FOB or around $600-610/mt CFR with $5/mt possible discounts. By the end of the week, the mill, however, has withdrawn its offers and is expected to return next week. Local HRC prices in Egypt have remained at EGP 35,000/mt ex-works, but in US dollars the offer is down $50/mt due to severe currency fluctuations, to $590/mt ex-works. Import HRC offers to Egypt from Russia stood at $490-495/mt CFR and at $520-535/mt CFR from China in the latest indications. Ex-Algeria HRC prices have been reported at no less that $590-600/mt FOB, while in the domestic market the supplier has increased its offer by DZD 3,000/mt to DZD 91,500/mt ex-works, while the US dollar equivalent has climbed by $10/mt amid currency fluctuations to $637/mt ex-works.
In the UAE, the HRC import market has remained largely inactive this week as uncertainty over shipping routes continues to disrupt trading activity. With cargo movements through the Strait of Hormuz facing disruptions, market participants are still assessing alternative logistics options, including potential rerouting via Oman or partial offloading at ports such as Sohar. However, freight levels and delivery timelines remain unclear, preventing buyers from proceeding with new bookings while most suppliers have refrained from issuing fresh offers. Chinese mills have also temporarily stepped back from offering to GCC buyers despite export FOB prices rising to around $480-490/mt, while the last known Chinese SS400 indications were reported at $490-500/mt CFR UAE for April shipment. Indian suppliers were last heard offering at $510-525/mt CFR UAE, while Japanese suppliers have remained absent from the market. Meanwhile, Russian suppliers were reported to have increased their offers to the wider MENA region to around $490-505/mt CFR, though no new offers have been heard in the UAE this week.
European hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have recorded another increase over the past week, with mills continuing to lift their offer levels across the region. However, the market response has remained muted as demand conditions have stayed weak and many buyers have refrained from making firm commitments. While offers from leading EU HRC producer ArcelorMittal have been kept at €750/mt delivered or €730/mt ex-works, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for May delivery, have been estimated at €700-710/mt ex-works, against €685-705/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, according to sources, although trade activity has improved to some extent, customers have been insisting on prices below €700/mt. Thus, the tradable price levels have settled at €685-700/mt ex-works, versus €670-700/mt ex-works last week.
In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €685/mt ex-works for April delivery, up by €5/mt week on week, and at around €700/mt ex-works for delivery in May, the same as last week. Meanwhile, the tradable price level is estimated at €680-690/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt week on week. The import market has continued to show little activity, as only a limited number of fresh offers were reported by industry sources. Indicative offer prices for HRC have remained at €525-600/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers. Offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at around €600/mt CFR, duty paid, but excluding CBAM costs, compared to around €560/mt CFR last week.