The European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained in a state of limbo, with both buyers and sellers continuing to assess the direction of future price trends. Many market participants have taken a cautious, wait-and-see stance, keeping a close eye on the timing and details of the roll-out of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and upcoming EU safeguard measures, before making decisions on future bookings.
Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €620-640/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while some are even targeting €640/mt ex-works for delivery in January. However, the tradable price levels have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, the same as last week, with a few deals reported to have been signed at the above levels this week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, HRC offers from mills have been estimated at €600-610/mt ex-works for December delivery, against €590-610/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €570-580/mt ex-works, against €560-580/mt ex-works last week. Besides, a few transactions have been reported at €600-610/mt delivered this week, according to sources.
“European HRC producers have continued to gradually push for higher prices for first quarter volumes. Buyers, however, have questioned the scale and sustainability of these increases, given the persistent lack of real demand in the market,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, the import segment has remained disorganized, with offers arriving under mixed terms - some including CBAM costs, others excluding them, and with pricing presented on varying bases such as CFR or even DDP. This inconsistency has made it difficult for market participants to identify any firm or reliable indicative price level, adding further uncertainty to an already fragile market environment.
More specifically, according to market insiders, this week an ex-Indonesia HRC deal has been signed in Spain for 20,000 mt at $582/mt DDP, or around €502/mt DDP. Besides, another ex-Indonesia HRC deal is reported to have been signed in Italy for 40,000 mt at €465-470/mt CFR, without CBAM, but, according to a source, “If this deal is true, the buyer will not take any risk and CBAM will be paid by the seller at the end.”
Meanwhile, offers for ex-India HRC without CBAM have been heard at $575/mt CFR, or around €495/mt CFR. However, more Indian offers have been also voiced with partial CBAM payment at around €530/mt CFR southern Europe. Furthermore, offers from Turkey have been voiced at around $635-640/mt CFR, or around €547-552/mt CFR, including duty and CBAM.
Besides, according to sources, offers for ex-Thailand HRC have been voiced at €565/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, while offers for ex-Algeria HRC have been heard at around €490/mt CFR, without CBAM.
$1 = €0.86